This past weekend in Sudan, the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its allies signed a charter to create a “government of peace and unity,” according to the group’s preparatory committee. The RSF is engaged in a brutal conflict with the Sudanese government’s military, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), fighting for control of the country. The RSF is backed by the United Arab Emirates, while the SAF is backed by Egypt.
Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, commented on the agreement, saying: “[The RSF] are trying to achieve a victory politically that they cannot achieve militarily.” Despite the RSF’s ambitions, even a political “victory” for them is unlikely. Per Reuters, “Such a government, which has already drawn concern from the United Nations, is not expected to receive widespread recognition.” A lack of recognition from the international community would alienate a new unified government, making it unlikely to succeed. The United Nations chief, António Guterres, further warned that the formation of the government could “increase the fragmentation of the country and risk making [the war] even worse.”
Beyond political implications, the international community is concerned with the mass famine in the region caused by the war, which has driven half of the population into hunger. Only a few days after the establishment of this “government of peace and unity,” the World Food Programme announced the pausing of aid to the Zamzam displacement camp. The program had been feeding 300,000 camp residents, but escalating violence in the region forced an end to the aid.
The war began in 2019 when President Omar al-Bashir was overthrown in a coup after large civilian protests. A subsequent transition to democracy began, including efforts to integrate the RSF and SAF. When this integration reached a roadblock, the democratic transition was abruptly ended by another coup, leading to a civil war between the RSF and SAF. The RSF has been mostly successful in its fight, but in recent months the SAF has regained ground and captured most of the critical Khartoum metropolitan area, according to the BBC.
The formation of the government seems unlikely to benefit the civilians in the region. Given the accusations of human rights abuses leveled against the RSF—including genocide—by the international community, it appears unlikely that the government will serve as a force for good in the region.
Right now, the most pressing need in the region is a temporary ceasefire to distribute much-needed humanitarian aid. One possible way to achieve this would be for the international community to economically pressure the United Arab Emirates and Egypt to encourage a temporary ceasefire for peace talks. Given that they are the two principal backers of their respective sides, a pressure campaign could result in the two countries strongly encouraging, if not forcing, the RSF and SAF to agree to a pause in fighting. Even if subsequent peace talks are unsuccessful, a temporary ceasefire would give the international community time to help refugees flee the country as well as distribute food, water, and medical supplies.
