On 9 October 2024, Mozambique held its highly anticipated general elections, during which citizens voted for a new president, 250 parliamentary representatives, and members of 10 provincial assemblies. Despite growing tensions in the pre-election environment between the main competing parties, namely the ruling Frelimo (Front for the Liberation of Mozambique), the Podemos (Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique) and the Renamo (Mozambican National Resistance), election day was conducted without significant disruptions. However, this rapidly changed on October 24, when Mozambique’s National Election Commission announced that Frelimo, the ruling party since independence in 1975, had won the presidential elections with its candidate, Daniel Chapo, and secured 195 out of 250 seats in the parliament. Immediately after, allegations of electoral fraud heightened, with nationwide protests breaking out and main opposition presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane at the forefront of rejecting the election results. Worrisomely, Mozambique’s ruling authorities have met the accusations of electoral irregularities with harshness and violence, which has resulted in the deaths of at least 30 citizens involved in the protests. Thus, with the alarming escalation of post-election violence, Mozambique risks spiraling into destabilization and turmoil. 

Notably, even before election day, it was evident that the stakes of the election were high as former president Filipe Nyusi from Frelimo was constitutionally obligated to step down, resulting in a wave of hope for an alternation of power after 49 years of presidential Frelimo rule. However, the targeted killing of Mondlane’s lawyer, Elvino Dias and Podemos Assembly candidate Paulo Guambe right before the publication of the election results shattered the hope, causing nationwide shock and outrage. Combined with the election results announced shortly after, citizen’s anger at Frelimo grew, with Mondlane calling for protests and strikes across the country, aiming to prevent another 5-year Frelimo leadership so that citizens are “freed from these shackles that have held (them) up for 50 years”. However, Frelimo has used the protests to violently demonstrate its political and military power. Amnesty International describes the government’s response as the “worst crackdown on protests in years (…) as authorities have tried to stop a peaceful protest movement with deadly force” to suppress the electoral fraud and assassination allegations.

Concerningly, accusations of electoral irregularities are not new in Mozambique. Since the first multi-party elections in 1994, election results have been met with suspicion. Strikingly, not just Mozambique’s opposition but also international actors such as the European and African Union have raised doubts about the accuracy of the electoral results as signs of ballot stuffing and voter intimidation have been observed, also in the 2024 elections. Concerningly, not only Frelimo’s role during the election process has been heavily criticized, but also its repressive approach towards the recent post-election protests. Concretely, Mozambican security forces employ live ammunition and tear gas against protestors while also restricting internet access, ultimately violating international human rights. However, Frelimo justifies these destructive and deadly measures with the need to ‘restore public order’ and ‘prevent a coup d’etat’, both of which have been strongly denounced by various activists, who state that such arguments are part of a ‘false narrative’ that Frelimo uses to justify its violent tactics.

Now, with the rising protest-related death toll and opposition figure Mondlane fleeing the country, the threat of escalation seems realistic, which has alarmed various neighboring countries as they fear a potential spillover of violence. Consequently, South Africa temporarily closed its main border, Lebombo, to Mozambique. Simultaneously, regional organizations have increased their efforts to preserve regional stability by addressing the escalating post-election violence in Mozambique. Hence, the African Union’s Peace and Security Council and the Southern African Development Community have held emergency sessions to discuss and propose immediate peace-fostering measures.  

Such efforts of regional actors notwithstanding, it is imperative that the Mozambican government itself takes responsibility for fostering peace by immediately refraining from its oppressive and violent approach when addressing the post-election protests. Instead, Frelimo needs to urgently implement constructive and nonviolent measures, such as holding new elections, to acknowledge the citizen’s legitimate demands for electoral transparency. Whether such necessary aspirations will be realized is yet to be seen – but the longevity of stability in Mozambique hinges on the government’s ability to foster peace and accountability instead of oppression and violence.