In response to a naval base agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Al Jazeera reports that Somalia has ordered the closing of its Ethiopian consulate, issuing a 72-hour notice for the Ethiopian ambassador to depart. Somalia has recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia. The agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia on January 1st, 2024, would allow Ethiopia to lease 12 miles of coastline from Somaliland for 50 years for military and commercial uses. Somalia has also ordered the closure of Ethiopian consulates in Somaliland, the northwestern region that had declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, as well as in Puntland, a semi-autonomous region encompassing the horn of Africa. 

Somalia’s driving claim against the naval deal has been that Ethiopia is breaching Somalia’s sovereignty by making territorial negotiations with a government that Somalia considers to be within its jurisdiction. On April 4th, the office of Somalia’s prime minister stated, “[t]he plain interference of Ethiopia’s government in the internal affairs of Somalia is a violation of the independence and sovereignty of Somalia.” In contrast, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Taye-Atske Selassie told Ethiopian state media that “direct access to the sea is a matter of our stability and national security.” The United Nations Security Council issued a press statement that “unequivocally reaffirmed its strong commitment and support for preserving the unity, territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty of member states,” lending its tacit support to Somalia, as Somaliland is not a member state. 

Ethiopia’s decision to unilaterally engage Somaliland was unwise, considering Somaliland remains unrecognized internationally. Regarding its short-term interest, Ethiopia hoped to cash in on Somaliland’s desperate desire for international recognition and score a cheap coastline for conducting trade and naval operations. This “deal” could undo years of federal reunification attempts by the United Nations and the African Union in Somalia. While Somalia remains embroiled in internal conflict with Al Shaabab and continues to exert only modest influence over its breakaway states, Ethiopia is aware that the international community recognizes Somalia’s territorial integrity. Having engaged in bilateral negotiations with Somaliland, Ethiopia effectively asserts its judgment above that of the United Nations and risks plunging northeast Africa into protracted conflict. 

Ethiopia and Somalia’s relationship has been fraught since the 1978 Ogaden War. Somalia waged the Ogaden War against Ethiopia to reclaim the Ogaden region, which ethnic Somalis largely populate. The decision to unilaterally engage Ethiopia cast Somalia as the aggressor in the conflict, ultimately bringing international aid to Ethiopia’s side and settling the war in its favor. Today, Ethiopia looks to exploit cleavages in Somalia’s sovereignty, resulting from the state collapse of 1991, in a parallel refutation of international law. Ethiopia would have been much wiser to engage Somalia in talks concerning Somaliland’s territory. However, perhaps Ethiopia had counted on the international community to side against Somalia again as its rhetorical commitment to conflict grew. 

Somalia’s decision to close consulates and pause ambassadorial relations with Ethiopia reflects the fragile state of affairs between the two states. Judging by Somalian officials’ hostility leveled at Ethiopia, and the degree of international condemnation it has received for bilaterally engaging Somaliland, Ethiopia should be careful to follow through on its naval deal in any material fashion. If Ethiopian submarines find their way to the coastline of Somaliland, Somalia will consider it a provocation to war. Somaliland has a long way to go towards reconciliation with Somalia. An important step forward would be international partners carrying out the mission of the Somaliland War Crimes Investigation Commission, which set forth to clarify the genocide leveled against the Isaaq people by the Siad Barre regime in the late eighties. With U.N. support, the Commission could significantly reduce this historical obstacle between Somalia and Somaliland, similar to the Rwanda U.N. War Crimes Tribunal.