On the 5th of January, an agreement was signed between Saudi Arabia and three other Arab countries that marks the restoration of diplomatic ties and the end of a three-and-a-half-year embargo with Qatar. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) imposed the diplomatic, trade, and travel embargo against Qatar in 2017, accusing the government of supporting terrorism and being too close with Iran. As all countries involved in the embargo with Qatar are significant regional allies of the United States, this dispute complicated their security interests in the region and heightened already-present tensions and uncertainties. Although there is some hesitation about the agreement’s efficacy, optimism remains that the agreement will lead to more stability throughout the MENA region.

The agreement resulted from the mediation efforts of Kuwait and the outgoing U.S. administration. Al Jazeera reports that Gulf leaders signed a “solidarity and stability” agreement, or the Al-Ula Declaration, at the Gulf Cooperation Council summit. According to the Associated Press (AP), Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said the region needed to unite and face challenges posed by Iran’s proxies and its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. He also stated that the four leaders’ declaration “emphasizes Arab and Gulf solidarity and stability, and reinforces the continuity of friendship and brotherhood between our countries.” Reuters reports that as part of the agreement, Saudi Arabia will reopen its airspace and land and sea border, and Qatar will suspend its lawsuits related to the blockade. The AP reports that currently, it remains unclear what concessions Qatar might have made in its policies for this agreement. 

Previous attempts by Saudi Arabia and other states to leverage the embargo insisted Qatar meet a list of demands. These included scaling back ties with Iran, shutting down a Turkish military base, closing Al Jazeera news networks, and ending ties with terrorist and ideological organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood. As AP News reports, Egypt and the U.A.E. view Qatar’s and Turkey’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood as a security threat and consider the group a terrorist organization, while Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are mostly concerned with Qatar’s relations with Iran. The New York Times reported that the Foreign Ministry of Qatar responded to the Saudi-led action as “unjustified” and with “no basis in fact.”  The article also noted that the Iranian government was critical of the embargo, with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stating, “Coercion is never the solution. Dialogue is imperative…” Qatar maintained its stance that it does not support extremists and refused to meet any of the blockading countries’ demands. 

As a result, the nations suspended diplomatic relations as well as land, air, and sea travel to and from Qatar. The severed ties resulted in immediate consequences for Qatar and its citizens.  Since Qatar imports 40 per cent of its food from Saudi Arabia, the boycott forced people to stock up on food and cash. Although it remains a wealthy nation, the boycott made a significant economic impact on the government, as Qatar’s national airline was forced to fly longer and costlier routes. The AP also reported that the severed relations separated families whose members had married Qataris, and ended years of visa-free travel for Qataris in parts of the Gulf. A final consequence reported is that it had the opposite political effects intended by the embargo, pushing Qatar diplomatically closer to Turkey and Iran when they both immediately assisted Qatar with food and medical supplies during the first days of the embargo.

Along with the timing of other recent Saudi Arabian agreements, there are some speculations. Some feel that this was Saudi Arabia’s attempt to grant the Trump administration a final diplomatic win while preparing to warm ties with the incoming Biden administration. Reuters also notes that regional diplomats have indicated Saudi Arabia was eager to demonstrate to President-elect Biden that they are peacemakers and open to dialogue. Samuel Ramani, a fellow at the Gulf International Forum quoted by the AP, also notes the timing, stating, “Normalization with Qatar could buy Saudi Arabia time to strike compromises with the Biden administration on other issues, such as the kingdom’s war in Yemen and potential U.S. reengagement with Iran.” President-elect Biden has made clear his commitment to return to and expand the Iran Nuclear Deal and reassess the U.S.-Saudi relationship after many concerns raised over the Kingdom’s abuses of human rights and violation of international laws and norms.

The end of the embargo on Qatar is good news for its people and the economy. Restoring ties will re-introduce tourism and commerce, as well as allow separated families to reunite. While this agreement is a positive step toward reconciliation, there is still much left to do to address the core issues of the disagreement and to regain Qatari trust. The AP quotes Dr. Dania Thafer, executive director of Gulf International Forum, who believes the summit and signed agreements were “confidence-building mechanisms more than they were a full reconciliation.” Anwar Gargash, the U.A.E.’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, tweeted his country’s eagerness to restore Gulf unity but also cautioned that the country has more work to do. The conflict in Libya will remain an issue that could escalate tensions, as Egypt and the U.A.E. support the military leader of the Libyan National Army, while Qatar and Turkey support the internationally recognized government. Another source of tension is the differing stance on the Muslim Brotherhood as a regional security threat. For the moment, Qatar’s backing of the Muslim Brotherhood is accepted by Egypt, as demonstrated by a statement made by Ahmed Hafez, the spokesman for Egypt’s Foreign Ministry, which indicated Egypt supported the efforts to reach a resolution that respected “non-interference in internal affairs.”

Al Jazeera reports that many Qataris view the agreement with mixed feelings, balancing relief for the reopening of borders and hesitations as to whether the agreement will last. Ajayan al-Hebabi, a Qatari entrepreneur, quoted by Al Jazeera summarizes the sentiment best: “I was happy to hear [about the reconciliation] but I worry because…the trust is not there anymore.” Only time will tell whether this agreement holds, and trust becomes re-established. Other steps towards achieving full reconciliation should include holding summits that focus on their remaining differences and what concessions each side can make. Furthermore, the U.S., as an ally to all countries involved, should maintain the role of mediation as an invested security partner.