Cuba received a brief moment of respite from its ongoing oil crisis as the United States allowed a Russian tanker to dock at the port of Matanzas on March 31 despite an ongoing blockade. The delivery, the first of its kind in more than three months, will provide the Caribbean island nation with 773,000 barrels of crude oil, enough to produce about 180,000 barrels of diesel, which is enough to fuel the island for about 8-10 days.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on March 29 that he does not “mind having somebody get a boatload because … they have to survive,” and that “whether or not they get a boat of oil” will not make a difference for the “finished” regime. However, the White House has made it clear that lifting the blockade is contingent upon regime change in the long-time Communist country. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on March 30 that “Cuba’s non-functional economy cannot be fixed unless they undergo dramatic leadership and political change,” with exceptions “being made on a case-by-case basis.”
Reactions from Cuban and Russian officials celebrated the delivery while condemning the US blockade. Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío wrote on X that “brutal blockade that the Cuban people endure with heroism and stoicism” was a “demonstration of the criminal cruelty of imperialism against a nation that refuses to be dominated.” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Russia has “repeatedly reaffirmed our readiness to support Cuba amid unprecedented threats and pressure from the U.S.”
The current blockade has been in place since January 29, when President Trump signed an executive order that would impose tariffs on any country that provides or sells oil to Cuba. At the time, Mexican state-run oil company Pemex provided Cuba with about 7,000 barrels of oil per day, according to Jorge Piñón, an expert at the University of Texas Energy Institute. Additionally, the operation that had ousted Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro earlier that month deprived Cuba of a crucial ally and source of oil. Combined, the two events have led to rolling blackouts and a growing humanitarian crisis as Cuba struggles to provide basic goods and services for its citizens.
However, neither substantive regime change nor an end to Cuba’s energy-based woes is likely. The Communist Party has maintained close control over all aspects of the state and economy in the country while restricting alternative political organization. As a result, Rut Diamint and Laura Tedesco wrote in an article in Foreign Affairs, “too many inside government are loyal to the regime, and the opposition is divided and lacks a plan.” Meanwhile, according to Piñón, “there is no short-term solution” to the energy problem. Although about 90% of the island’s electricity generation relies on oil, and domestic production only satisfies 40% of this need, Cuba’s power plants are aging and have not been consistently maintained. Rebuilding the country’s grid would be a long and costly process, estimated to take three to five years at a cost of between 8-10 billion U.S.D., and the government is currently insolvent.
Cubans have been left bearing the brunt of the crisis amidst the geopolitical clash. The country has been mired in a prolonged economic crisis since 2020, with strict US sanctions and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic leading the economy to contract by 15% over the past six years. In a 2025 survey, the Cuban Observatory of Human Rights found that seven in ten Cubans reported skipping at least one meal per day, while the AP reported that nearly 5 million people with chronic illnesses lack access to essential medications.
For Yuneisy Riviaux, these shortages have compounded hardship for people like her. The Havana native told the A.P. that her family was forced to sell their food stall in order to pay for medicine for her husband, which was only available on the black market due to shortages in state-subsidized pharmacies. She said that without income from their business, “I have to bite my lip and swallow my tears because I don’t have lunch for the girls.”
The solution to the already-pressing crisis is simple. The United States needs to end its blockade immediately, allowing Cuba to provide essential services for its suffering citizens without relying on oil from Vladimir Putin’s war machine. In the medium run, sanctions relief is necessary to provide Cuba with the ability to integrate itself with the rest of the global economy, allowing the government to make crucial investments in its infrastructure, from healthcare to energy. Regime change is contingent upon these first steps; in the long run, only a carefully negotiated compromise that promotes the well-being of the Cuban people will lead to positive-sum political outcomes for all involved.
