This past week, Russia has been building up armed forces at the Ukrainian border as East-West international relations sink to their lowest levels since the end of the Cold War. The seriousness of this situation cannot be overstated, and U.S. intelligence sources are now warning that the Kremlin is preparing for a multi-front offensive as soon as early next year involving some 175,000 troops.

This news follows talks between U.S. President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, who video-called early last week in an attempt to ease tensions. But differences between the two leaders provoke further breakdowns, rather than proving a means of discussing solutions. The Russian president’s remarks on Thursday justified his country’s actions by addressing the issue of discrimination and even “genocide” against Russian speakers beyond Russia’s borders, many of whom live in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. White House press secretary Jen Psaki rejected the remarks, saying Russia was known for escalating its rhetoric and misinformation, saying these comments should be taken “with a grain of salt.”

The UK has also made a number of statements regarding the developments. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who, when asked if she could rule out a military response to Russian aggression, said the UK was working with Ukraine on “defence and security capability […] We are supporting them and working to help them with their energy resilience. So they’re not solely dependent on Russian energy supplies. And that is the way ultimately that we will help support Ukraine.”

Indeed, it is not only political differences that increase tension but also political and economic reliance. Ms. Truss said the UK and EU were trying to ensure that Western economies were less dependent on Russian energy. Regarding sanctions, Mr. Biden has suggested he will likely use economic dependence to punish Russia should it invade Ukraine. The US has not specified what economic consequences it has in mind, but on Tuesday, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Nord Stream 2 (a new gas pipeline from Russia to Germany bypassing Ukraine which is not yet in operation) provided “leverage” for the US and its allies. Other possible measures include restrictions on Russia’s banks converting roubles into foreign currencies or even disconnecting Russia from the Swift global financial payment system, reports say.

There are several potential outcomes of this situation. While Putin could back down, this remains unlikely as to do so would be to show weakness, which would serve him badly on his home turf and the international stage. A diplomatic solution is what the various parties are hoping for. Still, Moscow’s desire for a de-facto neutralization of Ukraine would have profound implications for the country and how security is managed in Europe generally is unlikely to sit well with the West. If Russia does opt for military intervention, this could take various forms, from a large incursion to a significant invasion of the eastern part of Ukraine. NATO cannot and will not come to Ukraine’s aid for all the talk about Ukrainian sovereignty. Its moral and legal obligations to its member states do not extend to Ukraine, which is not a member of the 30-member organization.

On Sunday, however, Putin confirmed that he would hold more talks with his U.S. counterpart, even wishing to meet in person at some point too. This is positive and serves as a first step to placating the concerns raised by UK Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, who told reporters that: “a full-scale invasion would be on a scale not seen in Europe since the Second World War.” The situation thus remains tense, but if talks continue and all parties remain open to compromise, there is hope that the crisis can be averted.