As the US-Israel war on Iran enters its fifth week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared in an interview with Al Jazeera that the Strait of Hormuz will re-open “one way or another.” According to the Wall Street Journal, Rubio said the waterway would reopen either through Iran backing down or through a combined effort with regional allies and warned of “real consequences” if Tehran keeps it blocked. The Strait is one of the most important oil shipping routes in the world, and its closure has led to a dramatic increase in energy prices, causing serious problems for countries that depend on it.
The reaction from world leaders has been diverse among officials in the international community. According to The Hill, French President Macron pushed back hard, saying the war was not Europe’s to fight and that countries that started it on their own cannot ask others to clean it up. The UK brought together 41 countries to talk about reopening the Strait, and they blamed Iran for holding the global economy captive. Reuters has reported that an expert from the International Crisis Group warned that by going to war with Iran, the US had handed Tehran more power, not less, saying Iran’s control over the strait was more dangerous than a nuclear weapon. Ukrainian President Zelensky also weighed in, saying energy talks should be kept separate from the war entirely. Showcases tensions from around the world regarding the current conflict and the stakes at risk with talk of reopening the Strait.
The discourse currently coming out of Washington is not the language of peace and international stability. Rubio saying the strait will reopen “one way or another” displays the kind of open-ended threat that escalates matters rather than leads to a betterment of the situation. The Guardian reveals that Trump spent last week saying the war had nothing to do with oil and then posting on Truth Social that the US should take the oil and make a fortune. This kind of back and forth discourse from the people involved this conflict makes any real negotiation almost impossible. A lasting resolution does not come from threats and mixed messages. It comes from honest talks a clear plan and caring about the people caught in the middle of all this conflict.
Reuters reports that the US and Israel launched their operation against Iran on February 28th with goals of destroying Iran’s military capabilities and stopping a nuclear weapon. More than a month later, according to The Guardian, those goals have shifted and contradicted each other multiple times. Iran responded by effectively shutting down the Strait of Hormuz using drone and missile attacks on ships and demanding fees from vessels trying to pass through. Reuters added that US intelligence is warning that Iran is not going to give up control of the strait any time soon because it is the only real leverage it has. Iran’s parliament has also approved a plan to charge ships tolls for passing through, and Iran wants to be recognized as the authority over the waterway as part of any ceasefire deal. For a deeper look at the history of this conflict, readers can visit the Organization for World Peace’s Crisis Index.
What happens in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming weeks will cause ripple effects far beyond the region. Reuters claims military experts say trying to force the strait open by force would be risky and might not even be effective since Iran can hit the narrow shipping lane from deep inside its own territory. The people suffering most right now are not the ones making these decisions. They are farmers who cannot get fertilizer, families rationing fuel, and countries already struggling that now face shortages they had no part in creating. Leaders need to reflect on these circumstances and realities of many in their countries and around the world when they make decisions on this matter.
