South Africa, China and Russia are set to commence a 10-day naval exercise – “Mosi II” – off the coast of Durban, South Africa in the Indian Ocean on the 24th of February, 2023. South Africa is engaging in the exercise as a way to strengthen its navy, which in recent years has set the protection of its fisheries and combatting piracy in the Indian Ocean as top priorities. At face value, the country’s participation appears innocent and justifiable. However, on closer inspection, one may argue that the opposite is true. 

A similar exercise between these nations took place in 2019, whereby each country practised various naval tasks and drills using warships and other support ships. The aim of the exercise, according to the head of South Africa’s Institute of International Affairs, is to simply “team up with other nations to have the capacity to deal with things off its coast,” especially given that the country’s armed forces are “underfunded and overstretched”. However, with the ongoing war in Ukraine (and the fact that the start date of the naval exercise coincides with the one-year anniversary of its invasion) and China’s continued aggression toward Taiwan, it is no surprise that the planned exercise is making waves in international circles. 

It is important to note South Africa’s stance towards Russia’s devastating war in Ukraine – the conflict which is at the root of the current controversy surrounding the military exercise. South Africa has assumed a position of neutrality, evident in their unwillingness to join the US and Europe’s sanctioning of Russia and abstention from a UN vote condemning Russia’s invasion. Furthermore, a super yacht belonging to a Russian oligarch and a Russian cargo ship (supposedly carrying a “delayed order for ammunition” according to BBC reports) – both of which had been sanctioned – were granted access to docks in Cape Town and the South African Naval base respectively. Last weekend, the ship to be used by Russia during the exercise – the Zircon, armed with a hypersonic cruise missile – docked in Cape Town. Although Cape Town Mayor, Geordin Hill-Lewis, condemned the vessel, writing on Twitter that the ship is “unwelcome in the city”, the South African government has responded to the recent backlash with a different tone. It has re-emphasised its neutral position toward the Ukraine conflict, claiming its right “like any independent and sovereign state” to “conduct its foreign relations in line with its… national interests”. The government has also reminded critics of the many similar naval exercises in which the country has engaged previously, such as the one with France in November.

Although not explicitly acknowledged by the South African government as such, what appears to be a very close relationship between the country and Russia carries historical significance. South Africa’s governing party, the African National Congress (ANC) has, since the apartheid era, had close ties to Moscow which condemned the apartheid government and supported the ANC. Whether this was part of the Soviet Union’s strategy of extending its sphere of influence during the Cold War rather than due to genuine disapproval of the regime is debated. One may consider this relationship as it stands to be quite ironic. Why would South Africa – regardless of the historical ties – implicitly support a regime which is not far off from resembling the actions of the apartheid government; a regime which is unjustly persecuting an innocent population? China, on the other hand, is an important member of BRICS – along with Russia, South Africa, Brazil and India – an informal intergovernmental organisation to which South Africa’s membership is of great importance. Therefore, it becomes clearer why, despite receiving heavy criticism, South Africa is allowing the exercise to go ahead. 

Regardless of these historical and arguably strategic ties, domestic critics within South Africa warn of the risk of the naval exercise, noting that it could undermine the country’s economic interests: the EU – South Africa’s biggest export market – has already expressed condemnation, saying that “it’s not right, and we told them that we do not approve”. The public condemnation of South Africa’s implicit compliance in the Ukraine conflict – as some would call it – by major trade partners is supported in order to encourage South Africa’s disapproval toward and isolation of Russia, both of which would hurt Russia. The same goes for China. Economic sanctions towards South Africa and China – which proved effective in contributing towards the demise of the apartheid government – are another viable option to pressure a change of mind. 

The implications of this exercise are many, but more importantly, South Africa’s participation may cause the international community to question the extent to which the country – arguably one of Africa’s powerhouses – values world peace. It also confirms many fears that Russia is not only on a mission to exert its dominance in Eastern Europe but also in the Southern Hemisphere. What this could mean for world peace in the future is debated, but most definitely not unimaginable.