What’s Next For Thailand?

The death of King Bhumibol of Thailand has cast a significant amount of ambiguity and uncertainty on the country’s political landscape, economy and the overall structure and stability of its society. The King was seen by many as a calming and stable influence in tumultuous times. His ruling for 70 years has endured 19 coups, with 12 being successful, as reported by Al Jazeera. The government has announced Prem Tinsulanonda as regent. He was head of the Advisory Council to the King and was seen as the King’s closest adviser. He is reputed to favour clean governance and compromise over violence and aggression.

Thais gathered outside Siriraj Hospital, dressed in pink and yellow, colours associated with the throne from the time the king’s death was announced. Since then a period of mourning for one year was announced by the Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha. In addition he announced that the crown prince, Maha Vajiralongkorn would become king but that he needed time to mourn his father before doing so. This announcement was a relief for many who expressed uncertainty about the succession of the Prince. One option was for the Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn to take the throne as she is popular among the country’s citizens and personifies the monarch’s image. However this is unlikely as it seems to go against the King’s wishes to have his son be appointed as king and any decision made in contradiction of the King’s wishes is fraught with challenges and likely to fail.

In stark contrast to the reverence shown to the King by Thai’s, the Prince has a reputation as a playboy who spends a great deal of time in Germany leading an extravagant lifestyle. He does not command the same natural affection as his father which is concerning for the future of the monarch, political elite and the military.

The 2014 coup was seen as an attempt by the junta to ensure their control for when the succession was to occur. The coup was seen as a victory for the political elite and a defeat for the populist movement as they had ousted the elected government with the blessing of the King. The move resulted in a reconfiguration of the Constitution which allowed the military to restrict the power of political parties and to appoint members of the Senate.

It is unlikely that the military junta would make a major political move in the short term as this would attract public resentment as it is likely to be perceived that they took advantage of the King’s death to gain control of the country. Its control on the country remains secure as the change in the Constitution has ensured stability, albeit with potentially

Over the last decade a political struggle has existed, primarily between the conservative middle class and the rural working class. The former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has significant support in the working class for his populist social and economic policies. Thaksin was heavily criticised by the middle class who argued that he bought votes from the country’s rural north and north east. Protests ensued and eventually the military conducted their successful coup against the PM. The Economist reports that Thaksin has not returned to Thailand primarily due to a jail sentence being handed to him for corruption. It is a concern of the military and the political elite that the Prince and Thaksin have a good relationship. Many are worried that the Prince may pardon Thaksin and allow him to return to Thailand, leaving open again the rise of populist movements within the country.

Stocks and the currency are likely to be volatile in the short term, the Australian Financial Review has reported that the stock market has fell by 8 per cent over the four trading sessions to October 13th due to post succession jitters. Assuming a smooth transition, however, a major economic downturn is likely to be avoided.

In the longer term, Foreign Policy has articulated the relationship and rising power of the Prince and Thaksin could threaten the networks of businesses that have strong ties to the Crown Property Bureau which administers the palace’s estimated $53 billion in property and business investments. Its affairs are opaque and in theory the monarch is free to spend the money how he pleases. The King funded an abundance of royal development projects and, as reported by the Economist, a change in leadership could disadvantage many Thai firms and businesses depending on the actions of the Prince.

What’s next for Thailand?

A concern for many is that reverence for the monarchy will decline now that the King is gone and the more unpopular option of the Prince takes the throne. Esteem for the monarch could see a weakening of the institutions which are closely interconnected, particularly the military. Already the country has witnessed an increase in insults of the monarchy and also more severe punishment for anyone perceived to have insulted the monarchy that is protected by the lese majeste law which outlaws criticism of the monarch and can attract a prison sentence of 15 years in jail.

A key question is whether the Prince will pursue an activist reign or instead settle into a life of palace bound ritual? This could have dramatic effects on the political sphere of the country. However, given the year long period of mourning, it is likely that in the immediate future things will remain relatively stable. The long term is different matter altogether.

Lili Smith
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