The Western Sahara conflict stands as one of North Africa’s most enduring and intricate territorial disputes. Its origins stretch back to the 1970s when Spain, the colonial power, withdrew from the region. In the wake of Spain’s departure, Morocco asserted its claim to sovereignty, sparking a conflict with the Polisario Front, which sought independence for the Sahrawi people. Although a ceasefire was achieved in 1991 under the auspices of the United Nations, the dispute remains unresolved. Morocco now controls around 80% of Western Sahara, including key cities such as Laayoune and Dakhla. Despite numerous diplomatic efforts, the sovereignty issue continues to be a significant and contentious point of disagreement.

A significant development in this context occurred on July 30, 2024, when France officially recognised Morocco’s autonomy plan as the “only basis for a lasting resolution” to the conflict. This endorsement adds to the growing international consensus supporting Morocco’s position and reflects a shift in diplomatic dynamics. The recognition by France, a key player in international relations and a permanent member of the UN Security Council underscores the legitimacy of Morocco’s claims and its efforts to integrate Western Sahara into its national framework.

Morocco’s control of the territory has been reinforced by a growing number of diplomatic missions, with over 30 consulates established in Laayoune and Dakhla by countries across Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. This demonstrates significant international recognition and support for Morocco’s claim to Western Sahara, a region of considerable geopolitical and economic importance. The presence of these consulates signifies not only political backing but also economic interest in regional development, particularly through Morocco’s substantial investments in infrastructure and development projects initiated by King Mohammed VI as part of a new development model for the southern provinces.

Central to Morocco’s strategy for resolving the conflict is its autonomy plan, proposed in 2007, which offers a significant degree of self-governance while retaining Moroccan sovereignty. This proposal has garnered considerable international support, notably from France and the United States, both of which recognise the plan as a credible and realistic basis for a lasting solution. The United Nations Security Council has also described Morocco’s autonomy plan as “serious and credible,” emphasising its potential to bring about a political settlement. However, the Polisario Front, backed by Algeria, has consistently rejected this plan, insisting instead on a referendum for self-determination. This clash of visions has hindered progress, with the planned referendum delayed indefinitely due to disagreements over voter eligibility and other key issues.

Morocco’s diplomatic efforts have significantly reshaped the landscape of international engagement with the Western Sahara issue. Beyond France and the United States, many African nations have aligned themselves with Morocco’s position, with diplomatic delegations frequently visiting Laayoune and Dakhla to witness the region’s development and explore economic collaboration. For instance, a recent delegation from Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Guinea expressed admiration for Morocco’s social and economic advancements in the region. This broadening of international support not only legitimises Morocco’s claim but also strengthens its negotiating position with the Polisario Front and Algeria.

However, this international response has faced criticism for being heavily tilted towards Morocco’s perspective. While the autonomy plan is seen as the most viable solution, critics argue that it ignores the Sahrawi people’s right to self-determination. Algeria, which hosts a significant Sahrawi refugee population in the Tindouf camps, remains a vocal opponent of Morocco’s sovereignty claims and continues to support the Polisario Front’s call for an independence referendum, without any solid foundation. The humanitarian situation in the Tindouf camps remains a pressing concern, with tens of thousands of Sahrawi refugees dependent on international aid and the lack of a definitive census complicating efforts to address their needs effectively.

The broader international community has struggled to balance its desire for stability in North Africa with the need to uphold principles of self-determination. The UN’s MINURSO mission has been tasked with overseeing the ceasefire and facilitating the referendum process, but progress has stalled for decades. Recent resolutions, including the most recent one adopted by the Security Council, have reaffirmed Morocco’s autonomy plan while acknowledging the need for a political solution based on compromise. However, Russia’s intriguing abstention from the vote highlighted concerns over the neutrality of the resolution’s language and the need for direct negotiations between Morocco and the Polisario. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates has reiterated its support for Morocco’s sovereignty and the autonomy plan as the only viable political solution.

Morocco has made significant strides in solidifying its claim to the Western Sahara through a combination of diplomatic outreach and the promotion of its autonomy plan. The kingdom’s return to the African Union in 2017 was a major victory, allowing it to push for greater regional cooperation on the issue. By aligning itself with African Union members who support its autonomy plan, Morocco has managed to isolate the Polisario Front diplomatically. Moreover, Morocco’s investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, and tourism in the southern provinces have contributed to a sense of normalcy and development in the region, further strengthening its claim. The construction of new roads, airports, and other facilities in Laayoune and Dakhla demonstrates Morocco’s commitment to integrating Western Sahara into its national framework.

Despite the Polisario Front’s rejection of the autonomy plan and its insistence on a referendum for self-determination, Morocco’s diplomatic efforts have reshaped the landscape of international engagement with the Western Sahara issue. The growing number of diplomatic missions and consulates established by countries across Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America demonstrates significant international recognition and support for Morocco’s claim to the territory.

While the international response has faced criticism for being heavily tilted towards Morocco’s perspective, the kingdom’s continued efforts to promote its autonomy plan and strengthen its presence in Western Sahara have significantly bolstered its position in the ongoing conflict. The recent recognition by France further solidifies this stance, showcasing a shift in diplomatic support that could influence other nations to follow suit. Despite Morocco’s significant diplomatic outreach, economic development, and military presence aimed at solidifying its claim to the territory, the conflict remains unresolved. The political stalemate persists, with both sides unwilling to compromise on their core demands. The challenge moving forward will be finding a solution that addresses the aspirations of the Sahrawi people while ensuring regional stability. Morocco’s autonomy plan remains the most widely supported proposal on the table, but it will require sustained diplomatic engagement and compromise from all parties involved to bring about a lasting resolution.

As nations increasingly establish diplomatic missions in Laayoune and Dakhla, Morocco’s international stature continues to ascend, offering a glimmer of hope for a peaceful resolution. The recent endorsement of Morocco’s autonomy plan by France signifies a pivotal shift in global recognition of Morocco’s claims. This endorsement could herald a broader acceptance of the autonomy plan as the most viable path to resolving the Western Sahara conflict, fostering stability and prosperity in the region.

The journey towards a peaceful resolution remains arduous and replete with obstacles, underscoring the need for sustained international engagement and a reevaluation of strategies that have yet to achieve enduring peace. Morocco’s autonomy plan, now emerging as the cornerstone of negotiations, not only aligns with international law but embodies a pragmatic approach to a long-standing conflict. The acknowledgment of this plan by key global players represents a transformative moment, paving the way for a just and lasting resolution to the Western Sahara issue, both in the immediate and the distant future.