On February 15, 2025, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, chief of Uganda’s Defence Forces and son of the current president, Yoweri Museveni, issued a message on X, threatening to attack the eastern Congolese town of Bunia unless “all forces” surrendered their weapons within 24 hours, with the purported authority of his father. Threats made by General Kainerugaba are in reaction to unverified reports that members of the Bahima ethnic group were targeted and murdered in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Bunia, the capital of Ituri Province in the DRC, located about 25 miles from the Ugandan border, has been a long-standing site of ethnic tensions, particularly those between the Hema pastoralists and the Lendu farming community, and has generated violent confrontations as well as civilian deaths and displacements. The United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) has been actively involved in peacekeeping operations in the area and recently intensified operations after an armed attack was initiated by a group associated with the Lendu militias.

Despite Ugandan forces being present in the region since 2021 to combat the actions of rebel groups like the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and Rwandan-backed M23, fears of escalation have been triggered as more armed actors become involved. The United Nations human rights office accused the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels of committing human rights violations, including the execution of children in Bukavu. A UN spokesperson stated, “The ongoing conflict in the mineral-rich eastern DRC has led to widespread violence and abuses, including rape and child recruitment by both the Congolese army and militias.” Human Rights Watch also criticized the European Union’s passivity amidst Rwandan-backed atrocities in eastern DRC, highlighting the need for de-escalatory measures to prevent wider conflict and humanitarian crises.

International responses to Ugandan action in eastern DRC have been largely ineffective and inconsequential. Although bodies like the UN have condemned the violence in the region and deployed MONUSCO, they have largely failed to hold Uganda accountable for its repeated military incursions. MONUSCO has been deployed in the region for years, yet has found it difficult to prevent military escalations and violence. The threat of a Ugandan attack on Bunia directly undermines the objectives of MONUSCO, as unilateral military action would invite retaliatory violence and exacerbate regional instability. The UN’s reaction, however, is muted and demonstrates a trend of inaction and shortcomings of the existing peacekeeping missions. Meanwhile, Western powers frequently emphasize the need for stability in the region yet, they maintain strong diplomatic and military ties with Uganda despite its history of destabilizing eastern Congo. The US and European Union have supported Uganda as a regional security partner, particularly in counterterrorism efforts, yet they have largely overlooked the impact of Uganda’s interventions in DRC. This undermines and weakens international credibility and allows Uganda to continue engaging in military operations without consequence. 

General Kainerugaba’s threat to attack Bunia fails to address the underlying ethnic and economic tensions fueling violence in eastern DRC. Kainerugaba’s claim that Uganda must intervene to protect the Bahima ethnic group is a textbook case of regional leaders using ethnic justifications for military involvement. This rhetoric is particularly concerning given Uganda’s history of involvement in ethnic conflicts in the region. Rather than resorting to military action, Uganda should be pursuing diplomatic initiatives with the DRC government and regional actors to de-escalate tensions and address security concerns through non-military channels. 

Uganda’s history of involvement in eastern DRC can be tied to unresolved tensions from the Second Congo War (1998-2003), when Ugandan forces occupied parts of the region and were accused of plundering resources, committing human rights abuses, and fueling local conflicts. Even after officially withdrawing, Uganda has maintained significant influence through proxy armed groups. In 2005, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Uganda had violated international law during its occupation of DRC territory and ordered it to pay reparations. However, Uganda has continued to justify its military presence in the region under shifting pretexts. The threat to attack Bunia follows this same pattern of framing military action as a necessity while ignoring the broader consequences of repeated interventions. Ultimately, the persistence of conflict in eastern DRC is fueled by external interventions like Uganda’s, which prioritize short-term military objectives over sustainable peacebuilding. Kainerugaba’s threat to attack Bunia is not an isolated event but rather it is part of a broader cycle of militarized responses that have repeatedly failed to bring stability. If the international community continues to accept such actions without meaningful consequences, Uganda and other regional actors will remain emboldened to pursue their own agendas in eastern DRC at the expense of long-term peace.

The persistent instability in eastern DRC, exacerbated by Uganda’s military threats and historical interventions, demands an approach that moves away from militarized responses and instead focuses on community reconciliation, inclusive political dialogue, and a regional collaborative security framework. Military interventions have repeatedly failed to bring peace to the region because they do not address the deep-seated ethnic, political, and economic grievances of the conflict. A sustainable solution must prioritize healing historical divisions, fostering local governance structures that include marginalized communities, and ensuring that regional security cooperation is proactive in preventing future escalations.

The legacy of colonial rule divided communities along arbitrary lines, creating historic tensions that have been manipulated by political and military actors. To counter this, reconciliation programs should be established to bring together affected communities, including displaced groups, local leaders, and former combatants, in dialogue and conflict-resolution processes. These programs should be led by trusted local organizations that understand the cultural dynamics, rather than being imposed by external actors with little connection to the people or land. Ethnic reconciliation forums, where communities can address past grievances and seek accountability, would play a crucial role in restoring trust and facilitating dialogues. Restorative justice programs that reintegrate ex-combatants while providing support for victims of violence can help break cycles of revenge. Addressing land and resource disputes through specialized mediation bodies is also essential, as competition over land and mineral wealth has been a major point of conflict in the region.

Political exclusion has been a root cause of instability in eastern DRC. The colonial legacy created a centralized governance system that has often failed to represent the diverse ethnic and regional groups. As a result, political elites have historically manipulated ethnic divisions to maintain power, while marginalized communities have felt alienated from governance structures. To build a sustainable peace, there must be an inclusive political dialogue that addresses this and ensures fair representation for all communities. Decentralized governance structures should be strengthened to allow local communities greater control over their own affairs, reducing their reliance on national elites who often lack local legitimacy. Political representation must also be expanded to include historically sidelined ethnic groups, ensuring that decision-making processes reflect the diverse makeup of the country. Alongside these reforms, a truth and reconciliation commission modeled after South Africa’s post-apartheid process could help the nation confront its colonial past and the cycles of violence that followed. Acknowledging past injustices and establishing pathways for reparations and national unity would be key steps toward reconciliation.

Regional instability has been a defining feature of eastern DRC’s crisis, and Uganda’s military threats against Bunia highlight the failure of regional security cooperation. Instead of allowing unilateral military actions to shape the security landscape, a regional collaborative security framework should be established to ensure a coordinated and transparent approach to stability. Joint security and intelligence-sharing mechanisms between Uganda, Rwanda, the DRC, and other regional actors would help prevent armed groups from evading accountability and exploiting existing tensions. A non-military peace enforcement mechanism, separate from existing UN missions, should be deployed to oversee ceasefires, protect civilian populations, and monitor compliance with peace agreements. The failure of MONUSCO to win the trust of local populations demonstrates the need for a new, regionally led peacekeeping force that operates with clear accountability mechanisms and in cooperation with local communities.

Economic cooperation must also be a core element of regional security, as competition over the DRC’s vast mineral wealth has fueled conflict for decades. Establishing transparent and legal trade frameworks for natural resources would prevent warlords and external actors from profiting off the region’s instability. Regional oversight mechanisms could ensure that mineral revenues are directed toward development rather than financing armed groups. Instead of external actors exploiting these resources through backdoor deals, a cooperative economic framework would allow the DRC and its neighbors to benefit fairly, reducing incentives for interventionist policies.

This approach differs from past efforts by shifting the focus from reactive military measures to long-term institution-building, reconciliation, and inclusive governance. Uganda’s threats to attack Bunia are not an isolated event but a symptom of deeper regional tensions and governance failures. Resolving the crisis requires rebuilding trust among communities, fostering local governance structures that reflect the region’s diversity, and ensuring that neighboring countries work together rather than against each other. If the international community genuinely wants to support peace, it must move beyond crisis management and invest in sustainable, community-driven solutions.