United States officials are heading to Europe to meet with representatives from the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, and Germany, according to Reuters. With their European counterparts, the U.S. Treasury, State and Commerce Department officials will discuss strategies to deter Russia from invading Ukraine. One of the favored peace-oriented actions is sanctions on Russia, limiting their economic stability and providing motivation to not declare war on Ukraine.
In December, Russia began deploying troops to the Ukrainian border, and according to The New York Times, they currently have 70% of the force needed for a full invasion. Lining up troops has been Russia’s reaction to NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe and the West’s potential expansion – particularly into Ukraine. While NATO has stated that Ukraine will not be able to join the alliance anytime soon, Russia is unhappy with any future possibility of NATO expanding so close to their territory. Additionally, after annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, Russia fears losing control over that territory. As such, Russia is demanding a revision of security rules in the region and tensions have resulted. Western countries and Russia have opposing desires for how Eastern Europe security should be approached internationally.
Although the U.S. and Europe do not want to give in entirely to Russian demands, they acknowledge concessions must be made to maintain global peace. They are hoping a diplomatic strategy will work to arrive at a compromise. Over the past few weeks, key countries have met directly with President Vladimir Putin from Russia, including the U.S., Germany, and France. Each meeting centered around easing tensions and convincing Putin to take a pause, pull back some troops. President Emmanuel Macron from France has been the most successful in this endeavor. According to The New York Times, after meeting with Putin on February 7th, Macron confirmed a commitment from Russia that there will be “no degradation or escalation” in Ukraine, and that they are open to negotiations in terms of the “collective security of the European space.”
Vladimir Putin echoed these sentiments after the meeting, saying, “A number of his ideas or proposals — which it is probably too early to speak about — I see as rather feasible for creating a foundation for our further steps.” Despite continuous military escalation in the region, including military training in Belarus starting Thursday February 10, meetings Western country leaders seem to have helped Putin open up to dialogue.
Russia claims that after the 10-day military training, they will pull out their troops. Putin has also denied a plan to invade Ukraine. However, the U.S. and European countries are preparing for the worst case scenario. The U.S., along with other European countries, has called for their citizens to leave Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden also ordered a deployment of troops in the region, although John F Kirby, the U.S. Pentagon Press Secretary, labeled it as a temporary deployment. Ultimately, the strategy the U.S. and others are hoping will resolve the conflict is a diplomatic one, involving collaboration of Western countries.
U.S. officials are traveling to Europe on grounds of discussing peaceful ways to deter violence from Russia. One likely possibility is sanctions. The U.S. has impose sanctions on Russia since 2014, when they annexed Crimea from Ukraine. Since then, the U.S. has relied on sanctions as a peaceful mechanism to counter Russian cyber activities, chemical weapons, human rights abuses, coercion through energy exports, and illicit trade with North Korea, according to the Congressional Research Service. In the midst of current tensions with Russia, the U.S. is considering restricting transactions with Russian financial institutions and U.S. tech exports, as well as parts of Russia’s energy sector and secondary market transactions. Another peaceful deterrent they are considering is the suspension of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, which is currently being built between Russia and Germany.
In the past, a unification between the U.S. and Europe has also proved effective to enhance the non-violent approach of relying on sanctions. U.S.-European solidarity frustrates Russia, a country which relies on uncertainty to force countries into a weaker position. Here, they have lined up troops to create an air of uncertainty around the border of Ukraine.
The Western urgency to emphasize diplomacy and communicate without each other to avoid a violent war is a great strategy. However the international response has been disjointed, diminishing the positive effects of a peaceful approach. The U.S.-European front has not been unified during this crisis, leading the conflict to be dragged out. U.S. and European countries have expressed different priorities and differing levels of strictness in dealing with Russia. Whereas the U.S. has expressed a strong rejection of all Russian demands, France has stayed slightly distanced from an outright “no.” Germany has also responded weakly, partly due to their involvement with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline – Germany benefits from this pipeline and if it is suspended, they will feel the loss.
The way meetings have been established also added to the global disunion. Although frequent international meetings are a great first step in working towards a solution, group meetings (3-4 country leaders) on top of individual meetings adds confusion. For example, Germany and the U.S. met on February 7th, followed by a meeting between Germany, France, and Poland on the 8th, and then a Normandy style meeting between Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany the 10th. The shifting groups of countries involved makes it difficult to arrive at a compromise that all are happy with – because not everybody is there. This structure has added several layers of complication to the international communication required.
Without a united group approaching Russia with a compromise that all can agree on and stand behind, no diplomatic change will occur. If Russia receives a few slightly different offers and opinions from different countries, it becomes confusing. Russia will continue to capitalize off of the disorganization of Western countries and ready their military for a war. The U.S. and all involved European countries need to collaborate on a single, united solution to make headway in dissolving tensions with Russia.
Overall, the West does have a common goal: maintaining peace by preventing a war with Russia. After meeting with France and Poland on Tuesday, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, “We share one goal. Preserving peace in Europe with diplomacy and clear messages and the common readiness to act jointly.” Scholz acknowledged that this may not come so easily, as it has not so far. “A further violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine is unacceptable and would lead to far-reaching consequences for Russia, politically, economically and surely strategically, too.”
After meeting with Joe Biden on Monday, Scholz has begun to stand firmly behind consequences for Russia. The shift in Germany’s view to align more with the U.S. is a step in the right direction. With more countries getting behind one stance, they have a better chance at effectively reaching a compromise with Russia.
Western countries know that peace will not be an easy achievement. The crisis is already a complicated affair involving many players, and the disjointed communication has dragged out this issue. Although the U.S. was not present at the Thursday Normandy meeting, they are sending representatives to Europe to communicate with European countries. Ultimately, they are working towards the same goal so they can eventually arrive at an effective unification. The U.S. involvement in talks with European countries and sending representatives is an effort to take a unified stance and reach a conclusion. If more Western countries consciously work together and towards a unified response, the tensions with Russia will not persist due to lack of coordinated communication.
