Less than a month after signing the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which provided toll-free passage for commercial vessels passing through the strait and established the ceasefire between the United States and Iran for 60 days, the U.S. renewed its attacks on Iran after three ships were struck by unknown projectiles on the Oman coast near the Strait of Hormuz on July 7. Two of the three tankers that were attacked were identified to be a Qatari tanker called Al Rekayyat and a crude oil carrier “Wedyan” that belonged to Saudi Arabia. No casualties were reported. The Qatari and Saudi Arabia Foreign Ministry described the attack as a violation of international law and a threat to international navigation on X. The war has increasingly become a fight about who gets to control the strait, rather than Iran’s nuclear program that the U.S. claimed to be an imminent threat to national security. One of the tankers that was under fire was caught on the southern route along the coast of Oman. Iran has demanded ships to use a route near its coastline rather than using the Omani route “because traffic through this route undermines Iranian efforts to assert full control over traffic in the strait,” according to the Institute Study of War.
However, the U.S insists that this route is open by having the U.S. military escorting commercial ships and tankers through. The route is no longer safe, despite what President Trump is saying on TruthSocial. Ships thinking about passing through this route will likely trigger a similar attack to the Qatari tanker. The “area near this [route] is likely full of mines,” said Hossein Royvaran, a Tehran-based analyst, in a recent Al Jazeera article.
In response to Iran’s attack on July 7, the U.S. launched a series of strikes targeting Iranian coastal defense systems, military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, and multiple boats to “further degrade” Iran’s ability “to threaten freedom of navigation” in the strait, said C.E.N.T.C.O.M., the United States Central Command, on X. The U.S. also revoked the license that allowed Iran to sell its oil globally, further degrading “Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz” by cutting off revenue Iran could otherwise use to fund future attacks in the strait.
Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on key U.S. military sites in Bandar Salman, Bahrain’s Fifth Naval District, and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, marking the third time missile alerts have sounded in Bahrain since the ceasefire began. Kuwait’s military said it intercepted incoming fire on July 12. Attacks also hit the U.A.E., Qatar, and Oman; three people, including a child, were injured by shrapnel in Qatar, and Iran reported one of its own army officers killed. C.E.N.T.C.O.M. denied Iranian claims that three U.S. troops died in the Kuwait strikes. After Trump declared to reinstate a naval blockade on Iran in the strait, the U.S. attacked Iran for the third consecutive night, targeting Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas. Iran responded with cruise-missile strikes on two U.A.E.-flagged tankers, the Mombasa and Bahia, in Omani waters — killing one Indian crew member and injuring eight others (six Indian, two Ukrainian). Iran’s army also claimed drone strikes on a U.S. base in Kuwait, hitting a Patriot air-defense battery, fuel tanks, and an ammo depot. Oil prices spiked over 9%, with Brent settling at $83.30/barrel — the biggest single-day jump in six-plus years.
The Iran-backed Houthis ended its 4-year truce with Saudi Arabia when it fired missiles at the Abha International Airport on July 13, believing Saudi Arabia was responsible for the airstrikes on Sanaa International Airport that targeted an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthi delegation returning from the funeral of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Yemen’s internationally recognised government has claimed to be responsible for the airstrikes.
On July 14, the U.S. reimposed the naval blockade of Iranian ports for the second time. C.E.N.T.C.O.M. said on X that “more than 20 U.S. Navy warships and hundreds of military aircraft operating across the Middle East” are supporting the blockade. The first blockade that ran from April 13 to June 18 cost Iran approximately $5.8 billion in oil revenue. C.E.N.T.C.O.M. carried out another strike round hours earlier, hitting dozens of targets near the strait and coastal areas for seven hours.
Iran wants nothing less than complete control of the strait. Abraham Zolfaghari, a spokesperson for Iran’s top military command, said Iran “will not, under any circumstances, allow the U.S. to interfere in the management of the Strait of Hormuz” the following week after the U.S. had resumed strikes on Iran. However, Trump equally wants to control the strait, especially after spending around $132 billion of taxpayer money, according to Moody’s Analytics, and causing gasoline prices to rise as high as $4.56 per gallon.
Trump explained that he agreed to signing the ceasefire deal with Iran because “he didn’t want to see an economic catastrophe.” When Trump held his press conference at the G.7. Summit, the same day when Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian, the current Iranian President, signed the memorandum, agreeing to reopen the strait and enter a temporary ceasefire, he said, “I’ve studied presidents — some good, some bad, some great… And the one president I did not want to be was the late, great Herbert Hoover,” who was widely blamed for causing and worsening the Great Depression during his presidency. On The Axios Show, Trump told Marc Caputo he has “one primary wish as president, in terms of people: I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover.” Yet, with November’s midterms less than four months away, Trump is edging dangerously close to creating an “economic catastrophe” by restarting the war with Iran. “There’s basically no timeline in which this makes any sense for preserving [Republicans’] midterm performance,” said Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative. It might be “an effort to re-establish leverage and try to renegotiate the M.o.U.,”said Robert Trait, political correspondent for Guardian U.S. Though, Trait does not believe it will succeed.
Danielle Pletka, a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, suggests the U.S. should “finish the necessary military campaign, taking out Iran’s capacity to control and threaten the [strait]” before asking Iran if they would like to renegotiate terms. If Iran does not accept the new terms, the U.S. can walk away. “The devastation of the military campaign and the continuation and sharpening of sanctions will progressively tighten the noose around the regime’s neck,” said Pletka. However, Iran does not bear the cost alone. When the war broke out on February 28, the closure of the strait caused a global oil crisis. Countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe were conserving their remaining supplies. When Iran reopened the strait on June 18, 513 ships passed through before Iran declared the strait closed again on July 5, averaging 28.3 ships per day, which is far below the pre-war average of 100 ships per day. However, between February 28, when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, and April 8, only 278 ships passed through the strait in 40 days, averaging 7 ships a day. From April 13 to June 17, 462 navigated the strait, averaging only 6 ships per day in 66 days. 20% of the world’s oil passes through the channel. In 2025, 20 million barrels of oil and oil products passed through the strait, totaling to nearly $600 billion. The U.S. needs to consider if it can sustain the economic consequences long enough for intended effect to materialize
As of July 22, the U.S. has carried out 12 consecutive attacks on Iran. The House passed a $1.15 trillion defense policy bill and a separate $95 billion budget proposal aimed at funding the war in Iran.
