The Indo-Pacific faces a period of unique tension, from competing security alliances and unyielding inflationary pressure to a decline in democratic institutions throughout the region. This is a reality exacerbated by COVID-era policies that have favoured protectionism and prioritized political expediency over shared responsibility. 

The consequences are complex and interconnected. Only a month ago, the Asian Development Bank lowered its growth forecast for the entire region while highlighting that its emerging economies would fall most significantly.

At the same time, there exists a growing anxiety over the resurgence of antagonistic autocratic regimes and a corresponding decline in civil liberties. The return of a military junta in Myanmar – whose government recently authorised the execution of four pro-democracy activists – has emphasised that an absence of leadership is a threat to peace and stability.

Sri Lanka, described by the United States Department of State as “the epicentre of the 21st-century struggle for regional influence,” has endured a staggering economic collapse worsened by an absence of public confidence in its existing political establishment. In a recent statement, UNICEF’s regional director for South Asia, George Laryea-Adjei, warned that “As the economic crisis continues to rattle Sri Lanka, it is the poorest, most vulnerable girls and boys who are paying the steepest price.”

Furthermore, as the world confronts the reality of Russia’s war in Ukraine and renewed tensions across the Taiwan Strait, confidence in the international commitment to peace has waned. 

These differing troubles all reflect the need for greater regional leadership. The Indo-Pacific is facing a turning point in its development and without a united, compassionate and measured response, it risks decades of political instability, economic stagnation and a wider decline in human rights.

It is in this context that the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) must emerge as a unified voice for diplomacy. 

Established in 2007 at the behest of then-Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue has emerged as one of the most important political organisations in the Indo-Pacific. Its members – Japan, Australia, India and the United States – constitute a powerful political will and a shared commitment to democracy and the rule of law. The scale of existing challenges across the Indo-Pacific demands international cooperation; and it is the QUAD’s unique capacity and influence that is needed. 

As the region seeks to mitigate the cost of the COVID crisis, Climate Change and economic slowdown, the QUAD must embrace a position of diplomatic leadership through a regional vision for peace. 

However, the success of any comprehensive regional strategy will depend on the QUAD’s capacity to unite nations around a collaborative pathway to greater regional stability. It will also require the QUAD to commit to an ongoing economic and diplomatic investment in its partners. 

Promisingly, the United States has continued to signal its willingness to invest in the region’s development. US President Biden’s development of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity is testament to this reality. The Framework, formed between 12 regional nations, expresses a vision for greater US influence in the area. The White House articulated that the agreement “intended to advance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness for our economies. Through this initiative, we aim to contribute to cooperation, stability, prosperity, development, and peace within the region.” 

At the same time, the US has also reaffirmed its commitment to the Pacific, with Vice President Kamala Harris announcing new funding and a ‘National Strategy on the Pacific Islands’ in July this year. 

However, such commitments are not comprehensive and immediate challenges to forming any diplomatic coalition in the region remain. For instance, in its recent report, the Asian Development Bank observed that “both conventional and unconventional monetary tightening by the [United States] Federal Reserve weaken financial conditions in developing Asia.” As can be seen, balancing domestic pressures and international obligations is not always possible. Current US fiscal policy has hampered growth in the Indo-Pacific, with the unintended ramifications of worsening poverty and limiting opportunities for genuine development.

Therefore, despite US commitments there remains a concerning perception of competition rather than collaboration. Harris’ announcement had followed warnings from Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister that the US needed to expand its influence in the region to avoid “a catastrophic failure of deterrence” while Biden’s ‘Economic Framework’ was marred by controversy and regional reluctance.   

As Joshua Kurlantzick wrote in the Japan Times, “the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework falls short on many counts, and is generally indicative of the United States’ broader challenges in Asia… despite all the language and promised goals included in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, it contains no concrete commitments from the United States to allow participants greater access to the U.S. market and lacks enforcement mechanisms.” 

In Washington’s increasingly fraught political environment, international trade deals remain challenging to propose and even more challenging to ratify. This reality has weakened the stance of the QUAD in the region, with many nations concerned that its members lack the will and resources to make a significant impact in addressing many of the current crises. 

Despite this, the QUAD has continued to demonstrate that it can achieve meaningful progress in the region. For instance, at their most recent leaders’ summit in Tokyo, the ‘Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness’ was announced, with the vision of combating illegal maritime operations taking place across the region. 

Such an announcement, albeit operating on a far smaller scale than may be needed to secure any long-lasting impact, stands as a testament to the organisation’s capacity to address the issues of greatest importance to nations in the Indo-Pacific. 

Importantly, it is this capacity that lies at the heart of the QUAD’s ability to lead the region into a long-lasting period of peace. In the face of regional competition, bringing together stakeholders will be the hill upon which progress is made or lost. Indeed, any collaborative vision for the region must involve an ongoing and targeted effort to address those issues most pressing to the region’s members. In many instances, this will involve recalibrating the QUAD’s focus – from guaranteeing security to promoting economic development.

Each member of the QUAD holds considerable soft-power influence in the region. The US is largely regarded as the centrepiece of current efforts to maintain regional stability, while Japan has held together the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership in spite of then President Trump’s withdrawal from its predecessor, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Recently elected Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has signalled his government’s intent to offer greater engagement and support to the Pacific. In fact, India and Australia have partnered to deliver humanitarian relief across the region, including both vaccines and other COVID-mitigating tools.

Following a meeting between Australia and India earlier this year, India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar commented, “We shared our experiences responding to the COVID challenge itself, but also in assisting other friendly countries in particular with vaccines, and we have committed ourselves today to building more trusted and resilient supply chains and ensuring broad, inclusive growth in the Indo-Pacific.”

What is now needed for the region is a greater synergy between these national efforts. The QUAD presents an opportunity for a cohesive regional roadmap, driven by economic commitment, diplomatic presence and a shared vision for a more peaceful Indo-Pacific. 

The Quad must act as more than an economic or military institution. It must embody an ideology of mutual support, regional respect and collaborative growth. Leading with shared vision and a commitment to strengthening the entire region – even at a personal cost – is the most effective policy for developing the Indo-Pacific. If the QUAD can embrace such a vision, the entire Indo-Pacific region will benefit.