The Middle East is a region characterized by contrasts. Oil-rich Qatar maintains a GDP-per-capita of more than 100 times destitute Yemen. Beirut’s celebrated cosmopolitanism lies less than 300 miles from Raqqa, the capital of the now defunct caliphate of the Islamic State. Meanwhile, the Kingdom of Jordan acts a beacon of stability for the millions of refugees who have fled the war and instability which has plagued the country’s neighbours to the north and east. Yet, despite the intense political, social, economic, and religious differences which divide the region, the Middle East shares a common experience: acute water insecurity.

In past and contemporary history, water supplies in the Middle East have been restricted to a handful of sources. The area known as the Fertile Crescent, stretching from the Persian Gulf in a semi-circle through Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean Sea, has supplied plentiful irrigation water from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Other parts of the region, particularly the arid landscape of inner Arabia, rely heavily on dug wells for their daily water needs. Finally, coastal populations, particularly along the Gulf, have increasingly taken to utilizing desalination plants to supplement the meager water resources found underground.

All of these methods of water extraction are threatened by the dual pressures of increasing supply and demand. According to a World Bank study, nearly every country in the Middle East and North Africa has 60% or more of its surface water resources categorized as under ‘High’ or ‘Very High’ levels of water stress. This is expected to rise as reserves face depletion and demand continues to grow. Meanwhile, countries which rely heavily on desalination for their freshwater supplies face an increasingly difficult task, as the excess salt from the process is typically discarded back into the sea, increasing the salination levels of the remaining Gulf waters. This has the effect of devastating the marine ecosystem and requiring even greater desalination to create potable water in the future. These man-made challenges are further augmented by the effects of climate change, as temperatures and sea levels rise, leading to larger droughts and floods, and greater salination of coastlines.

Amidst ever-dwindling reserves, the demand for freshwater continues to rise. Agricultural usage is by far the largest consumer in the region, accounting for approximately 85% of withdrawals. Agricultural water wastage is higher in the Middle East than anywhere else in the world, exacerbated by the tendency to grow water-intensive fruits and vegetables that would be otherwise unsuitable for the region if not for extensive irrigation. A population explosion will place ever greater strain on this system, not only requiring rising levels of food production, but also an increase in domestic water consumption. Boom cities like Abu Dhabi and Doha have expanded rapidly from a natural population growth and non-resident migrant workers, alike, placing a huge strain on already insufficient water reserves. Although these metropolises are unique, the water insecurity they face is common to the entire region.

As the Middle East’s water reserves continue to be stretched thinner by a combination of falling supply and growing demand, there will be significant risks for the future prosperity and security of the region. Future scenarios depend heavily on the degree of population growth, however. The Middle East experienced a nearly fourfold increase in population between 1950 and 2000, but forecasting predicts a slowdown in growth over the coming decades. Nevertheless, the increasing size of the region’s population—even if that growth rate is slowing—presents an acute threat. Currently, nearly two-thirds of the region’s population is exposed to some level of water stress, a proportion which is expected to grow into the future. As a result of this ballooning demand, water supplies will increasingly become resources of immense value—and competition.

Already, there have been clashes between states to secure the dwindling water resources of the Middle East. The Jordan River, for instance, has long been a source of much tension in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinians all claiming uneven shares of the crucial water source. More recently, disputes have arisen over the all-important Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Both rivers flow from Turkey into Iraq, before emptying into the Persian Gulf. Turkey’s favourable position upstream the two rivers have allowed it to essentially hold the water flows hostage by building a series of dams and power plants along its Southeastern border. Similarly, Iran has periodically cut off tributaries to the Tigris, with experts believing it is motivated in part by water security concerns and partly to apply pressure to the Iraqi Kurds living downstream.

For the moment, international disputes over ownership of water resources have remained just that—disputes. However, as the water crisis presumably worsens into the future, governments may increasingly calculate that sanctions or even military action will be necessary for the survival of their populations. Even short of outright interstate conflict, there are numerous ways that water insecurity can negatively impact the region. Falling water supplies will likely continue to hamper crop production until more sustainable farming methods are adopted. Additionally, water rationing in cities and countryside, alike, will decrease living standards for the country’s poorest. These pressures may not instigate instability, but they have the potential to worsen the already fragile confidence in the region’s governments.

Mitigation of this looming crisis is of paramount importance to the people and governments of the Middle East, as well as in the interest of the global community. As it stands, there are three issues which need to be addressed: supply, consumption, and redistribution. On the supply side, there is a desperate need to augment the storage of rain-water in large storage dams and aquifers, which, due to their size, are much less vulnerable to water loss from evaporation. Additionally, governments will need to control consumption by controlling usage and eliminating water subsidies which tend to promote overexploitation. Finally, to meet growing urban demand, water will need to be diverted from agricultural use. This requires a transition away from water-intensive crops, like rice, towards less demanding options, such as wheat. Each one of these solutions is insufficient, in and of itself, for mitigating the coming water crisis. Only a radical shift in the way the Middle East handles the supply, consumption, and distribution of its water resources can reduce the hardship and instability sure to come if the wells run dry.