Once more, the turbulent Middle East appears to be on the cusp of a major geopolitical realignment. The rising pace of the region’s interstate quadrille (an 18^th & 19^th century dance which involves repeated changing of partners) is seeing the development of strange bedfellows. In particular, many observers remark that Saudi Arabia and Israel may be heading for a full-fledged anti-Iranian alliance. The cost of this convergence? The aspirations of the downtrodden Palestinian peoples.

In essence, the recent upheavals in the region have called into question traditional lines of demarcation in the decades-long struggle between Israelis and Palestinians. The American decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel sparked a crisis, pitting itself and Israel against the majority of the Arab and wider world. However, despite the expectation that Saudi Arabia—long self-styled as the champion of the Palestinian cause—would rally to denounce Israel, criticisms were short-lived. Although Saudi Arabia called on the United States to reverse its decision in compliance with international law, Riyadh has been quick to hypocritically bolster its support for Israel. The reason for this peculiar reaction leads back to the machinations of the brash Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman.

In recent months, the exploits of Mohammad bin Salman have garnered international attention. As the health of King Salman appears to worsen, speculation has run rampant that the Crown Prince is seeking to consolidate his personal power in anticipation of taking the reins of the oil-rich kingdom. This consolidation of power has involved eliminating potential domestic threats, ending the country’s dependence on petrodollars, and embarking on an ambitious foreign policy.

In terms of foreign policy moves, Mohammad bin Salman has been motivated by a growing Saudi fear of Iran. In Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and the Persian Gulf, Iran has steadily increased its influence, much to the consternation of Riyadh. Despite its attempts to support Sunni factions, Iranian-backed Shi’ite militia forces have been far more successful in extending the control of the governments in Baghdad and Damascus over Syria and Iraq, respectively; as a result, Iran has extended its own control over these increasingly dependent client states. Lebanon, long a centre of Iranian power via Hezbollah, appears to be tilting further into the Iranian camp. Finally, Qatar is regarded as a significant threat to neighbouring Saudi Arabia, with the latter claiming that the small Gulf nation has sponsored Shi’ite agitation in the region.

In response to Saudi fears, Mohammad bin Salman has taken a number of bold, but largely counterproductive moves to isolate Iran. An ongoing embargo against Qatar failed when Turkey and Iran provided food aid and diplomatic support to the embattled Gulf state. More recently, Mohammad bin Salman appeared to have masterminded a bizarre quasi-coup in Lebanon, which involved Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri fly to Saudi Arabia and promptly resign, citing Iranian meddling in domestic politics. The unexpected move, however, was reversed only two weeks later, casting doubt on Mohammad bin Salman’s schemes.

Despite the embarrassing failures of these adventures, Mohammad bin Salman does not appear to be chastened. If speculation on recent events is to be believed, moreover, the Crown Prince appears to be embarking on the most audacious and dangerous move yet. Reversing decades of well-established Pan-Arab policy, Saudi Arabia may be moving towards a rapprochement with Israel by scotching the Arab Peace Initiative (API). The Arab Peace Initiative, championed by the Crown Prince, was an initiative that offered to recognize Israel in exchange for an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. However, this plan appears to be effectively dead, as Mohammad bin Salman appears to be moving Saudi Arabia onto a more expeditious course.

The API had the intended purpose of securing broad Arab support for Saudi Arabia in a predicted showdown with Iran. However, as the arrangement flounders, Mohammad bin Salman has instead dropped the Palestinians in favour of their arch-nemesis: Israel. Along with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, staunch followers of Saudi foreign policy, Saudi Arabia appears to be moving towards recognizing Israel and its goals of ending Palestinian aspirations for full statehood. Instead of pushing for a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, Mohammad bin Salman appears to be changing course to support Palestinian statehood only within a Gaza Strip that would be expanded with land from the Sinai Peninsula. In a meeting with the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, the Crown Prince apparently laid out this vision of a much reduced Palestinian state. Unsurprisingly, Abbas was shocked by the Crown Prince’s abandonment of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. A reported offer of $10 billion dollars of support to the Palestinian Authority did little to mollify Abbas.

Unsurprisingly, the reactions of the Arab populace in the region has been universally negative. As could be expected, the swelling anger is directed at the United States and Israel, with rallies taking place outside of American embassies to protest the recognition of Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. However, a great deal of the anger is also directed towards the Arab governments who have traditionally been the main backers of full Palestinian statehood. The weak response from Riyadh, Cairo, and other Sunni Arab capitals have utterly failed to deter Israel’s expansion of control into East Jerusalem and the West Bank, while the proposal for an expanded Gaza-based Palestinian state is regarded as little more than a fig leaf to bury the thorny Palestinian question for good.

While the traditional backers of the Palestinian cause abdicate their duties in favour of closer ties with Israel, an opposing alliance is stepping up to take up that mantle. In a bold move to claim a leading role in the Muslim world, Iran and Turkey appear to be joining together to champion the Palestinian cause, which has traditionally acted as a rallying point for popular support. Iran denounced the United States for recognizing Jerusalem, with none of the conciliatory moves towards Israel which characterized Saudi Arabia’s response. To coordinate a response to the Jerusalem crisis, Turkey, meanwhile, called a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in Istanbul. The organization typically meets in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and this move can be perceived as indicative of the changing priorities of the two opposing alliances in the Middle East.

The dangers of this geopolitical rearrangement are all too clear. At the forefront of the Saudi coalition’s mind is curbing Iranian expansion. Proxy wars and diplomatic skirmishes have been fought in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and the Persian Gulf states, but a full-blown conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has so far been avoided. The former likely understands that it would not fare well in such a hot war, and, thus, is seeking to find powerful allies. The Trump administration has signalled its strong support for the Saudis and its intention to scrap the Iranian nuclear deal. However, there is swirling uncertainty regarding the willingness and ability of the United States to scrap the deal and go to war with Iran. As a result, Saudi Arabia has sought an alliance with Israel, and has shown that it is willing to throw the Palestinians under the bus in order to gain the military support it would require for a strike against their regional rivals.

If such an attack were to take place, the Middle East would likely be plunged into unprecedented violence and instability. Besides the obvious dangers of a full-blown conflict for military and civilian personnel, such a war would also further accentuate the religious divide within Islam, laying the groundwork for even greater levels of strife and violence between and within Middle Eastern communities. Additionally, the optics of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and perhaps Egypt siding with Israel against fellow Muslims would be immensely dangerous, sparking the sort of popular anger and instability that has not been seen since the early days of the Arab Spring. Finally, whether or not an attack on Iran would be successful or not, it is certain that the Palestinians would be no closer to their dreams of full, unified independence. While the regional powers dance on, these downtrodden peoples will sink ever further into the ground which may never truly be theirs.