Philippine foreign policy has reached a fork in the road as China increases its aggressive control of the South China Sea in opposition to the United States and other Southeast Asian nations. The Philippines rests in a strategically invaluable location along the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean, meaning alliances with either the U.S. or China will play an important role in its foreign policy. With presidential elections on the horizon in 2028, Filipinos will decide whether to continue recent diplomatic endeavors with Japan and the U.S. or to reverse course and court relationships in Beijing. 

Philippine internal politics sit at a precarious crossroads due to the alliance-turned-feud of the two largest political families in the Philippines – the Dutertes and the Marcoses. Rodrigo Duterte was the President from 2016 to 2022, and his daughter, Sara Duterte, became Vice President in 2022. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was elected President in 2022 and has since fallen out with the Dutertes; his father, Marcos Sr., was ousted in 1986 by mass protest. 

The alliance between the two dynasties began in 2016 when Rodrigo Duterte and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. made a deal to support each other in the elections for President and Vice President, respectively. However, when Marcos Jr. lost the Vice Presidency, the alliance was put on ice. It wasn’t until 2022, when Rodrigo Duterte’s term as President ended, that Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte combined the two families’ resources to create a powerful joint ticket.

It wasn’t long after the election that the alliance began to break down. Once in office, Sara was appointed Secretary of Education, a role with less prestige than she had expected. In 2024, Sara resigned from the Marcos cabinet, claiming she felt ‘used’ by the President. She immediately fell under investigation by the Senate for misuse of government resources through the Department of Education.

The drama continued when Sara, during the investigation, claimed she had hired a hitman to take out Marcos Jr., his wife, and the Speaker of the House if she were to be killed by the government. In February 2025, an official impeachment was served for Sara, and one month later, Rodrigo was ambushed by the police while at the airport. He was handed over to the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity related to his War on Drugs campaign, which, according to the Human Rights Watch, claimed the lives of 12,000 Filipinos.

While the Philippines has had longstanding issues with China’s presence in the South China Sea, a 2016 U.N. Arbitral Tribunal decision marks the most recent source of tension between the nations. The tribunal ruled overwhelmingly in favor of the Philippines, determining that China’s naval claims represented by the nine-dash line, land reclamation, and other activities in Philippine waters are unlawful. China rejected the decision as ‘null and void’, and continued its operations in the area. China has retaliated by ramming Philippine fishing, shipping, and leisure vessels within Chinese-claimed territory despite the U.N. ruling. 

However, that doesn’t mean that Philippine foreign policy has always responded to Chinese agitation. At the outset of Duterte’s Presidency, he downplayed the Chinese construction of military facilities on reclaimed islands and the aggressive behavior of China’s military in the South China Sea. In addition, he largely ignored the 2016 U.N. ruling in his country’s favor. Duterte hoped that by getting in Beijing’s good graces, China would shower his country with gifts. In fact, in 2016, China pledged tens of billions of dollars in new investments in the Philippines, but only a few of those projects have broken ground so far, most being forgotten or cancelled. 

By ingratiating himself with the Chinese, Duterte traded American interests for Chinese. During his time in office, Duterte consistently undermined the Philippines’ alliance with the United States, stalling the renewal of the Visiting Forces Agreement – which allows the US to host troops in the Philippines – and deals that would make it easier for the US to move troops and weapons closer to the South China Sea.

Duterte’s trust in China seemed to disappear when, in 2018, he threatened to send troops on a “suicide mission” if China continued to send ships near the Philippine-controlled Spratly Islands. This was in response to more than two hundred Chinese ships spotted near the island in early 2018. Despite this, Duterte continued to represent the pro-China option. 

Since Marcos Jr.’s election in 2022, the country’s foreign policy has swung in the opposite direction. Marcos made it public early into his Presidency that he would not follow Duterte’s pro-China tilt. This served as one of the first shake-ups in their alliance, proving that Marcos Jr. would not abide by the Dutertes’ will. 

Most recently, on May 21, the Marcos Cabinet traveled to Japan, where they were met with a luxurious welcome, including a meeting with Emperor Naruhito. The countries upgraded their relations to the ‘highest level’, now sharing a comprehensive strategic partnership, which will allow them to cooperate on a wide range of issues. 

The two countries also agreed to begin negotiations for the sale of military equipment, including destroyers and training aircraft. More importantly, they agreed to share military intelligence, a deal that would also help strengthen trilateral military cooperation with the United States. Japan provided five coastal surveillance radars to the Philippines as part of this initiative. Sanae Takaichi, Japanese Prime Minister, said, “Japan will continue to further strengthen cooperation with the Philippines as we respond to the increasingly severe strategic environment in the region,” and, according to Mari Yamaguchi’s article in the Associated Press, alluded to permanent ties that would stop the Philippines from flip-flopping on China.

On May 24, while Philippine leaders were in Singapore for the IISS Shangri-La dialogue, the Chinese Military and Coast Guard conducted patrols by Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, one day after the Philippines and the US conducted naval exercises in the same area. Gilberto Teodoro, Philippine Defense Minister, responded in an interview with CNBC the same day, saying China “continues its acts unabated, and they’re unrepentant with their expansionism,” “We are in for a long-term struggle.”

While the situation in the South China Sea continues to play out, with recent escalations showing the Philippines importance in the region, drama at home threatens to once again reverse the country’s political direction. Despite the Dutertes’ damaged position, with Rodrigo facing trial at The Hague and Sara facing her second impeachment in the Philippines, Sara declared her intention to run for President in 2028.

Sara surprisingly maintains popular support in many areas of the country, tied to her 2022 campaign and her father’s reputation. Recent scandals in the Marcos government, tied to corruption in flood relief money, have also boosted her prospects. This has given Sara reason to be optimistic. The Pulse Asia survey, commissioned by Stratbase Group, found that if the 2028 elections happened today, 51% of Filipinos would vote for Sara Duterte.

There are signs that this support might not last. The poll does not include a Marcos successor, only the Liberal candidate that Marcos beat for President in 2022. According to the South China Morning Post, there are signs that Sara’s poll numbers may already be declining. This could be due to the direction of her second impeachment, which, according to expert Richard Heydarian, shows billions of pesos went through Sara Duterte’s bank accounts during her time as Education Chief, with no reasonable explanation for the money. 

The 2028 election will decide the course of the country’s foreign policy. Marcos Jr. has made it clear he wants to pursue relations with A.S.E.A.N., which the Philippines currently chairs, Japan, and the United States. While Duterte Sr. was lenient with China during his Presidency, he also showed that his decision-making was tied more to his personal likes and dislikes. Sara Duterte’s foreign policy direction is unclear. She has indicated her preference may be to distance the Philippines both from the U.S. and China, but, according to the South China Morning Post, she has largely tried to balance Filipinos’ general dislike of China without making Beijing angry.

Either way, Sara Duterte’s Presidential run shows the Philippines could still be in play for either power if they were to court her as a personal ally. Sara’s presence also affects the extent to which other nations can rely on the current regime’s commitments; a shakeup in 2028 could lead to the unraveling of years of diplomatic work.

The rivalry between the two families, and between Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte, has developed into a rivalry over the future of Filipino foreign policy in the South China Sea, and as such, the culmination of that battle over the Philippines will result in a major stepping stone towards the eventual state of play in the region.