The Devil That You Know

As SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) spreads around the world, governments are responding with harsh strategies to contain it. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin (PVP) asked citizens to stay in their homes and take the rest of April off from work with pay. Businesses were outraged the government initially offered no help with salaries or rent. All of this comes at a particularly delicate moment for the Russian president. On Tuesday, March 10th, Putin introduced legislation to amend the constitution that would allow him two more terms in office, extending his control until 2036. The proposal still must pass a referendum which has been postponed until the virus is under control. PVP needs a strong response to contain the virus, but he can’t risk losing votes for his proposal. The situation presents a serious challenge to Putin’s control. Moreover, some see the constitutional amendments as a step in keeping the stability of Russia.

Despite appearances, Russia is a fragile and politically fractious federation held together by an oligarchy including and refereed by PVP. As Andrew Cramer for the New York Times so eloquently writes, “In the Russian system, alliances of business oligarchs, generals, governors, intelligence officers, and oil company chiefs compete for power and money. Mr. Putin, rather than the courts, arbitrates these disputes, preventing escalation.”

The amendments proposed by Putin are more than just a power grab. According to Stratfor’s Global Analyst Sim Tack, “Putin’s bid for long-term control has more to do with keeping a fractured Russia together than it does with his own drive for power.” However, a poor response to the virus may turn people against him. He could lose votes for the referendum or even spark violence. Andrei Kolesnikov, a political analyst at the Moscow Carnegie Center said via Reuters, “[President Putin] has just lost… the support of the people in the private and competitive sectors.” Dariya Kaminskaya commented via Reuters, “the owner of a car repair shop where work has dried up,” adding that “she says she had already had to pay her seven employees out of her own pocket. This is how revolutions were started in the past, beginning with the proletariat.”

The Russian oligarchy has kept stability in Russia since the 00’s and Putin has kept the oligarchy stable. That’s not condoning them, but they are part of the system like it or not. However, in that time they never developed an effective way to transfer wealth and power. According to Maxim Trudolyubov, Senior Fellow at the Kennan Institute, “It is not just about political power; it is about businesses, properties, investments, and all other repositories of value. All wealth in Russia is first-generation—and the principals are getting older.” The difficulty lies in trying to transfer property tied to political favor.

Moreover, a poor response to the COVID-19 outbreak could prevent Putin from passing the referendum he needs to give him more time. It could also spark violence. The fragility of the situation is outlined by Peter Knoope’s “Eight Reasons Why COVID-19 May Lead to Political Violence” report for the Clingendael Spektator. Russia displays four of the eight reasons cited by Mr. Knoope – income disparity of which Russia has the largest.

The disparity is made worse by high inflation and a weak economy largely dependent on oil; a lack of government services – Russia has an aging and chronically underfunded healthcare system and most government services were provided through the now decrepit factories of the Soviet era; corrupt law-enforcement system – Transparency International ranks Russia 137 out of 180 countries on its corruption index; and distrust of the government – Vox reports there is already evidence that Russia is hiding the true number of COVID-19 cases in the country. Additionally, the Washington Post stated that Russians trust Putin less now than they have in the past.

Russia has a history of doing poorly without a strong centralized authority. In 1985, Mikhail Gorbachev’s decentralization lead to the dissolution of the Eastern Block states, a rise of violent independence movements and the collapse of the Soviet Union. His successor wasn’t much better. President Boris Yeltsin’s tenure ushered in the influence of the oligarchy, mafia gangs, rising violent crime, depressed living standards, and a tarnished image abroad. By the time Vladimir Putin came to power, it was a very low-bar for success. He proved to be a confident and intelligent leader who exerted control quickly. As Rory Challands for Al Jazeera puts it – “he stopped the rot.”

Putin used an early commodity boom to enrich the middle class. He expanded Russia’s presence in the international community and notably accelerated the return to a strong central government. Additionally, he asserted control over the oligarchs by stripping some of their holdings and prosecuting and jailing those that were unfriendly to the Kremlin.

While Putin is not blameless for the precarious position Russia finds itself in, the problems started when Gorbachev tried to reform the system but retained some of the Soviet components in the ’80s. It was compounded as Yeltsin built higher upon that poor foundation. By the time Putin came to power, the system was corrupt and broken. His early work made improvements but without the political will to do more Russia stagnated again. Tony Wood describes the fall of the Soviet Union, not as a singular event but as a continuing process that began in 1991. Given that, perhaps Putin is right when the Associated Press quoted him as saying, “Stability, calm development of the country may be more important now, but later when the country becomes more confident and gets richer it will definitely be necessary to ensure government rotation.”

Adam Ragozzino
Follow me
Latest posts by Adam Ragozzino (see all)

Related

Leave a Reply