Water scarcity in the Middle East is a significant and growing issue, especially in places where multiple states share a water source. Since the 1960s, the three main consumers of water from the Euphrates-Tigris Basin, Türkiye, Iraq, and Syria, have experienced significant tension and conflict over water usage. Simultaneous development projects in each state drastically reduced the flow of the rivers and led to tension between each of the riparian states. Türkiye, in particular, controls the headwaters of both rivers and has used this strategic position to pressure its neighbors into providing concessions. In 1987, Türkiye agreed to release 500 cubic meters of water per second to Syria in exchange for the country’s cessation of support of the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (P.K.K.). In 1990, after Iraq invaded Kuwait, Türkiye cut off the flow of the Euphrates into Iraq. Then in 1997, Türkiye notably refused to sign the United Nations Water Convention. As of 2019, according to an article in The Maritime Executive, Türkiye is responsible for reducing Iraq’s water supply by 80 percent since 1975. In the 1990s and 2000s, multiple promising attempts to improve relations between the riparian states were made. In 1998, Syria announced that it wished to resume Joint Technical Committee meetings and expelled the leader of the P.K.K. from its territory. Then in 2001, a Joint Communiqué from Syria and Türkiye advocated for shared responsibility for the sustainability of land and water between the states, including joint projects and the sharing of knowledge. In 2005, the Euphrates-Tigris Initiative for Cooperation (E.T.I.C.) was founded to promote dialogue across the borders of the riparian states. In 2009, two Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) on the management of water resources were signed between Iraq and Türkiye and between Syria and Türkiye.

While the MoUs and the E.T.I.C. were both encouraging developments toward peace, a central hindrance to reconciliation between Iraq, Türkiye, and Syria is the lack of a formal agreement between the three states. While the E.T.I.C. promotes cooperation, nothing binds the three governments to practice sustainability or teamwork. Iraq has a particular distrust of Türkiye due to its water crisis. Desertification in the south of Iraq has increased significantly as Middle East temperatures increase at twice the rate of the rest of the world (reported in Al Arabiya News) and rainfall decreases. A report by the Arab Center Washington D.C. stated that between 2020 and 2021 alone the flow of the Tigris decreased by 29 percent and the flow of the Euphrates decreased by 73 percent due to a lack of rainfall. Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Syria has softened its relations with the P.K.K., which has further divided Syria and Türkiye based on the agreement the two states made in 1987. Türkiye has discussed stabilizing relationships with neighboring countries since the early 2000s, but continues to use water to exploit the riparian states. Türkiye’s Ilisu Dam, which became operational in May of 2020, has been projected to reduce the flow of the Tigris to Iraq by 56 percent. The highly controversial project has continued to put pressure on Iraq’s ecosystem and resources and given Türkiye more control over Iraq’s water supply. In 2022 alone, according to Arab Center Washington D.C., Iraq’s wheat production decreased by 40 percent.

For lasting peace and the restoration of water to the region, a multilateral and binding agreement must be made between the Euphrates-Tigris Basin riparian states. While attempts have been and continue to be made, the situation is too dire for conversation alone. Swift action must be taken not only by the countries of the region but also by international organizations and other states with the funds to provide aid. While the focus is currently on the myriad violent conflicts in the Middle East, the scarcity of water will continue to increase and have catastrophic effects on the region. Foreign investment in and support of NGOs and local governments will be necessary to achieve a quick and effective solution. NGOs and similar research organizations should develop water allocation plans to reverse the desertification in Iraq while maintaining enough for Türkiye and Syria. United Nations peacekeeping forces should be used to monitor adherence to any upcoming plans and should hold each state accountable for its use of water. Türkiye in particular must be kept from using its control of the Tigris and Euphrates headwaters to exploit Iraq and Syria. Türkiye must adhere to its professed goal of normalizing relations with neighboring states in order to achieve peace and work towards a sustainable future in the Middle East.