On July 15, 2026, Lithuania’s president, Gitanas Nauseda, warned that intelligence assessments found that Russia is planning a potential provocation against energy or transport infrastructure in the Baltic States or Poland. While intelligence has indicated that this would likely not be a large-scale assault, Russia may be preparing a limited attack on infrastructure. Lithuania is the latest country to warn of a potential attack, with Polish leaders and Latvian intelligence also warning of a similar attack in recent weeks. As members of N.A.T.O., these attacks don’t just affect the involved countries but the alliance as a whole.
This is the latest in a series of potential hybrid attacks by Russia against the Baltic States and Poland. While these countries have long been targets of Russian hybrid attacks, they have intensified since Russia’s war in Ukraine began. Analysts believe these attacks are designed to test N.A.T.O.’s strength and unity as part of Putin’s goal to undermine the alliance, as well as weaken the countries involved. Some previous attacks included arson and sabotage of critical infrastructure. On September 10, 2025, N.A.T.O. aircraft intercepted and shot down a swarm of drones in Poland’s airspace. A few days later, N.A.T.O. jets escorted three Russian warplanes out of Estonia’s airspace. In November 2025, two Ukrainians with a Russian connection were accused of carrying out a railway explosion on tracks connecting Poland and Ukraine. Russia has also used drones to intrude on N.A.T.O. airspace. Furthermore, Poland and other countries have accused Russia of attacking undersea power and data cables in the Baltic Sea.
Russia has denied any involvement in hybrid attacks. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, claimed the Lithuanian warning was “a fresh portion of new scare stories to continue brainwashing the population and prepare for further militarisation [in the Baltics].”
In recent months, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland have strengthened the security of key transport and energy infrastructure. European Union defense ministers have proposed creating a “drone wall” to defend against drone incursions from Russia. The Polish government is also moving forward with plans to build an anti-drone system, and plans to upgrade its navy to ensure security in the Baltic Sea. In response to the new threats, Lithuania has boosted the protection of critical transport and energy assets.
Criticisms
The Baltic States and Poland are continuing to integrate further with the rest of Europe, which is seen as a threat to Putin. For example, the three Baltic states are planning to synchronize their power grids with the rest of Europe rather than with Russia and Belarus. With increased ties to the rest of Europe, Putin may think that an anti-Russian alliance is creeping closer to Russia’s border, creating a threat to the country. In addition, the Baltic States’ increased militarization and support for Ukraine may also be seen as a threat. In 2025, according to a report by the Atlantic Council, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia led the N.A.T.O. alliance in defense spending as a percentage of G.D.P. A report by the Council on Foreign Relations found that Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia were among the top six allocators of aid to Ukraine by 2021 G.D.P. Putin may also view Poland as a threat, as it is a key logistical hub for Western military assistance to Ukraine.
Europe also faces a problem with underdeveloped technology. In response to Russia’s drone incursion in Poland, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur stated that “most of the drones were not detected.” With drone technology rapidly developing in Russia, N.A.T.O. is struggling to defend against new drone threats. While Poland, the Baltics, and Finland all plan to reinforce their frontiers, this will only be effective if it is a unified strategy built on common and fully integrated technologies.
At the same time, N.A.T.O. has struggled to come up with a uniform response to Russian threats. Some want to increase defense, but this requires money and updated technology. Another critical factor is ensuring the alliance isn’t dragged into a war with Russia and that relations between the countries do not worsen. Some have advocated for a more forceful response, including conducting N.A.T.O. military exercises on the border with Russia, arming surveillance drones, and lowering the bar for pilots to shoot down Russian threats. However, these actions risk escalating the conflict into a full-blown war between Russia and N.A.T.O.
Moreover, current responses are more reactive than preventative, addressing challenges as they appear. While there has been a lot of verbal condemnation of Russian attacks and plans to prevent them, tangible action has moved slowly. Rather than addressing threats as they come, it is critical to attempt to prevent the attack from even occurring or to have a tangible plan in place to prevent it.
Additionally, proposed solutions fail to address the security perceptions of Russian leaders, who believe that N.A.T.O. and increased militarization are justifications for these hybrid attacks. Until security concerns are addressed, Moscow will continue its hybrid operations.
Solutions
To solve this conflict, it is critical to find a position that includes both defense and diplomacy. First, ending the war in Ukraine is critical. Latvian intelligence reported that Russia was utilizing “hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones, or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems.” With Ukrainian attacks reaching Russian territory, Putin may view hybrid operations as a way to demonstrate Russian military capabilities. However, it will be long and difficult to end the war. While diplomatic communications with Russia have proven to be difficult, it is critical to continue these communications so both sides can clarify misunderstandings while ensuring that the hybrid attacks do not escalate into war. Continued negotiations may include more frequent communications and meetings. During these negotiations, it will be critical to address Russia’s security concerns by maintaining that N.A.T.O. is a purely defensive alliance, and that Russia has nothing to fear from it as long as they do not attack.
In the meantime, it is critical that European countries develop the technology to reduce the effectiveness of Russian hybrid attacks. Because of the effect hybrid attacks have on civilians, it is important that technology development is a priority for N.A.T.O. countries. These technologies should promote civilian well-being by improving intelligence sharing, critical infrastructure, and drone detection systems. To address the gap in drone technology, European leaders should turn to the Ukrainian example. Ukraine has invented cost-effective ways of dealing with Russian attack drones. By working with Ukraine, European leaders can improve their defense, protect their civilians, and further improve relations with Ukraine. To implement this, Ukraine should be invited to drone-defense meetings, so the country can give inputs and perspectives on how N.A.T.O. countries can improve their technology.
In addition, it is necessary to adopt unified technology across the N.A.T.O. alliance. By adopting similar technologies and policies, member states can work together to develop strong systems, rather than working separately, assisting each other with prevention, tracking, and utilization. Adopting unified systems demonstrates strong unity across the alliance, meaning that member states are ready to respond to any threat they may receive. It is essential that this is adopted quickly to ensure that future attacks can be prevented, rather than responded to. Because of the significant overlap in N.A.T.O. and E.U. countries, unified technology can be implemented through the E.U., ensuring countries have the funds, mandate, and legal backing for these systems.
The strategies of diplomacy and defense emphasize a commitment to peace by N.A.T.O. countries. Utilizing these strategies can allow a peaceful end to hybrid attacks, improved quality of life for civilians in the affected countries, and unity across the region. Overall, it is critical for N.A.T.O. to move beyond divided, reactive responses and focus on unity, prevention, and communication to prevent hybrid attacks in the region.
