Putin’s Security Ideals Embedded In The Balance Of Power Theory: Russian Perspective

Russian President, Vladimir Putin, gave insight into his regime’s practical approach to international security via the classical Balance of Power (BOP) theory. The dominant practice of determent before and during the Cold War is still  highly relevant, notably in nuclear capabilities.

Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2016 , the president alluded to the need to ensure global security balance is maintained after the United States lodged a new ballistic missile “defence system” in Romania. Putin clearly found offense and warned about subsequent imposition of equal or greater weapons technology that threaten to nullify Russia’s nuclear ability.

Nuclear threat remains the ultimate military balancing tool and Putin declares the defense system in Romania was created under the deceitful pretext of countering the Iranian nuclear threat. However, with the US-lead deal with Iran, backed by Russia, to prevent Iran from having nuclear capabilities, Putin asserts the US knew the Iranian threat would be subdued and thus leave Russia as a viable option.

“Missile defense is for defense. It is defensive. It does not undermine or weaken Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent,” said Jen Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, at the missile base in Deveselu, Romania. It was the most diplomatic statement to make but it wasn’t suffice to convince the Kremlin.

 

Map
Strategic positioning of US-NATO  military systems in Europe. Photograph : BBC

The Kremlin has  constantly echoed friendly sentiments in effort to forge a meaningful relationship with the US. However, it is simultaneously aggravated with meddling US encroachment on European soil and affairs. Many resentments have been aimed at NATO, a perceived failing institution with no clear objective and purpose in the modern political arena, which has undergone multiple enlargement phases through member ascension.

Attention is turned to how NATO is contesting Russian influence in the Balkans, a pro-Russian region. Montenegro has received an official NATO integration invitation for potential membership and there are looming fears among the Kremlin that more states like Serbia and Macedonia are next. This is an overview of the incremental and diminishing geo-political support Russia & Putin have to embrace.

Vladimir Putin Addressing Concerns About The Missile Defense Base in Romania. Video: Inessa Youtube

The Balance of Power is a component of core power politics and  grand design of European statesmanship. From Metternich to Putin, it continues to prove its relevance contrary to many academics who deem it obsolete in contemporary society. Nuclear deterrence is, to many political scientist, not held in similar high regard as  cyber and economic warfare, the new dimensions on which political wars are now fought. Putin is a clear exception to that perception.

Countermeasures & Frailties Of The BOP

With the non-nuclear threat of Iran, Putin see Russia’s nuclear threat and weight in the BOP undermined. He has thus declared to strengthen Russia’s nuclear defenses in efforts to halt and neutralizes that of the US-NATO unit.

Effective neutralizing is circumstantial on current ballistic missiles ability, strategic location and existing country partnerships. Intelligence points towards Crimea as the most suited position to establish countermeasures as Russia started deploying S-400 missile defence system. The pretext is to counter anti-Russian groups in Southern Ukraine, but early reports suggest that the situation there is unwarranted of S-400. It is the obvious reaction to nullify the threat in Deveselu.

I must remind you, though you already knows this,  that major global conflicts have been avoided in the past few decades, due to the geo-strategic balance of power which use to exist…Is simple how it works. Where one side becomes dominant in their military power, they are more likely wanting to be the first to use be able to use such power.

Crimea, East Northeast of Romania. Easy point of Reference to intercept Ballistic Missiles.“Their reasons where not genuine, in relations to the ‘Iranian nuclear threat’. Once again they lied to us,” said Putin, as distrust remains a prevalent discourse in Ruso-United States relations.  The positing of the military base in Russia can only prompt Russia to continue enhancing its military-industrial complex to maintain equilibrium.

An important flaw with the BOP is that it perpetuates tension and political discomfort. Putin insinuates Russia is reactionary to US-NATO imposed “acts of aggression”. World War I could be attributed to the eventual collapse of the BOP system that became deeply intertwined with complex relationships among nation-states. Today, the BOP is not so complex but more brazen as demonstrated by the Cold War. While the Cold War survived witnessing many scares and “close moments” to potentially trigger conflict, it was quelled with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Putin’s Russia now stand firms as a super power and its military prowess cannot be denied. Hence, why NATO continuously tries to strategically position itself  though not having any genuine military threat outside of Russia and the erratic North Korea.

What does this mean for Putin and Russia? It forces Russia on the offensive militarily to null the level of threat posed by US-NATO entities. With the already uniqueness of it S-400 Triumf missile system with homing radar capabilities, Russia has a much improved S-500 in development. Its a never ending upgrade on weaponry to remain on par with the “enemy”.

Michael Harrison
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