Myanmar’s military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (U.S.D.P.) held rallies on October 28th in the country’s capital, Naypyidaw, and its largest city, Yangon. The rallies kicked off the party’s campaign for this year’s elections, set to take place on December 28th, but Myanmar’s ability to hold free and fair elections appears in serious doubt. Civil war has embroiled the country since 2021, when the military carried out a coup after the National League for Democracy (N.L.D.) won elections in a landslide under Aung San Suu Kyi. Claiming the N.L.D. had committed widespread voter fraud, the military seized power without convincing evidence of its claims. Soon after, popular opposition and armed resistance escalated into civil war.

Military control of the country casts doubts on the upcoming elections’ credibility, even though many see them as an attempt to legitimize the ruling military government. “I don’t think anybody believes that those elections will be free and fair,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres stated at a press conference during a conference between the U.N. and A.S.E.A.N.. The army-appointed Union Election Commission forced dozens of parties to disband several years ago, including the N.L.D. Decrying unfairness, several opposition groups have announced intentions to derail polls and the election itself. Fighting in the country has also raised questions on how voting may take place since estimates suggest the military controls less than half the country, with the rest under rebel command. As a result, Senior General and head of the junta, Min Aung Hlaing, announced that voting would only be held in 202 of Myanmar’s 330 townships. Without significant opposition parties running, the U.S.D.P. is poised to win most of Myanmar’s seats in December.

A lack of international opposition to Myanmar’s junta has contributed to the nation’s critical state. The coup in 2021 drew limited reactions, as most nations merely called for an end to the violence, while a few others have enacted sanctions against Myanmar. On the other hand, China, Russia, and India have both provided significant support to the junta for geopolitical and economic reasons. China’s interest is especially personal, as it hopes to protect its economic investments in Myanmar and foster stability on its borders. Along with Russia and India, China has become a major supplier of weapons to the junta since the coup, facilitating continued war in Myanmar. Several other nations, like Thailand and Singapore, initially continued business relations with the junta after the coup, but many ties have soured as the war has continued. Recently, Thailand called for increased international cooperation to stop the war, while Singapore’s government cracked down on arms trade with the junta.

The continuous flow of weapons into Myanmar has given the junta a technological advantage in the war, but it has not consistently led to success on the battlefield. Until recently, the military consistently lost ground to opposition forces in both open and guerrilla battles. Furthermore, it also faced significant defections from soldiers and officers. The resulting quagmire has turned Myanmar into a humanitarian disaster, killing over 75,000 people and displacing millions more. The fighting in Myanmar seems to have no end in sight, and as it continues, the humanitarian situation will only worsen.

About a third of Myanmar’s population requires humanitarian assistance, but aid projects remain underfunded and incomplete. As a result, necessities like food, water, and fuel are becoming increasingly difficult to access for much of the population. The country also faced a devastating earthquake in March, which killed thousands and caused widespread infrastructure damage. Since then, the junta has limited aid into the country despite its necessity. “I have spoken with humanitarian workers physically blocked at checkpoints and received reports of earthquake survivors evicted from shelters with no place to go,” U.N. Special Rapporteur on the situation in Myanmar Tom Andrews stated in a briefing to the U.N. Human Rights Council.

If the international community wants to end the civil war in Myanmar, it must take action to convince the junta that the conflict is not winnable. The military’s technological advantages allow it to continue fighting despite its lack of tangible success on the battlefield, so eliminating that advantage would deter further escalation. As a result, discouraging arms shipments from China and Russia could lead to de-escalation by diminishing the junta’s technological advantage. Without the reliable support of weapons like drones and fighter jets from its allies, Myanmar’s military could find itself forced to negotiate with the band of resistance forces it faces.

Forcing China and Russia’s hands would not be an easy task, however. A U.N. resolution against shipments from either country would likely fail since both hold veto power. However, holding a vote for an arms embargo would draw international attention to Myanmar, which may be necessary to increase pressure on China and Russia. Even if a resolution failed, it likely would inform other nations of the tragedy happening in Myanmar and encourage them to take further individual actions against the violence. Learning about Chinese and Russian involvement could, for example, spur other nations to enact sanctions on both until shipments stop. A similar approach achieved positive results in the Russia-Ukraine war, as many countries have come together and sanctioned Russia individually, leading to economic drawbacks. A coordinated action against weapon shipments to the junta could inhibit the military and force it to reconcile.

If the military concedes, the United Nations could step in and assist Myanmar in establishing the institutions necessary for a fully functioning, credible democracy. Doing so would likely involve radical reformation of the military after its consistent violations of democratic principles, but reestablishing civilian rule in the country should be Myanmar’s primary concern. The upcoming elections in December are not credible, free, or fair for the citizens of Myanmar, and their situation becomes increasingly dangerous as the war continues. Convincing the junta in Myanmar to step down and cede power is the first step of many to foster stability in the nation, and it will require a concerted effort from the international community to inspire that change.