On April 14, 2024, Iran launched more than 300 missiles toward Israel in retaliation against an alleged Israeli airstrike that destroyed Iran’s consulate in Syria. The strike in Damascus, the capital city of Syria, reportedly killed two Iranian generals and five officers, according to an article by the Associated Press. Israel, however, with the help of the United States, Britain, and Jordan, was able to intercept 99% of the missiles launched by Iran.
According to an article by Al Jazeera, the international community has largely responded with concern that the incident could incite a larger war in the region. The European Union immediately condemned the attack by Iran. Officials from countries like France and Germany warned that the missile strikes increased the chances of conflict escalation and urged Iran to stop its attack. Other countries, like India, China, and Egypt, have also expressed concerns that the attacks could escalate tensions and have further global effects.
According to The New York Times, Iran immediately warned Israel that they would retaliate forcefully after Israel’s drone strike that killed Iranian officials. Israel similarly promised retaliation after the hundreds of Iranian missiles were intercepted, but it did not return fire as heavily as expected. According to the article, Israel held back from an immediate widespread drone raid due to pressure from the U.S. Israel did conduct limited strikes on an Iranian airbase overnight, but both Israel and Iran had seemingly relatively controlled responses. According to The New York Times, both countries are likely hoping to cool down the tension to prevent further escalation. Israeli officials have told The New York Times that the strike was meant to have limited damage to cool down rising tensions.
According to The New York Times, Israel’s limited strike aimed to serve as a warning to Iran. Since the strike was near Natanz, a city in the central part of Iran that contains a lot of Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure, it showed Iran that Israel has the power to debilitate Iran’s response if necessary. Additionally, Israel used a smaller percentage of the firepower than that Iran used against them previously, which has reduced tensions, as there is no sign of further retaliation from Iran.
The two countries have been in a “shadow war” for over a year according to The New York Times. Both countries have been attacking the other in retaliatory strikes, but the attacks have mostly been small in scope targeting officials, commanders, and military bases. When Israel conducted its airstrike that killed the Iranian officials in Damascus, Israeli officials did not expect that it would cause Iran to react with the intensity and anger it did. According to The New York Times, Israel only notified the U.S. about the planned attack moments before they struck, and the U.S. believed that Israel miscalculated how serious Iran would view the attack. The misjudgment by Israel escalated the conflict to a much higher level, increasing the probability of an all-out war.
The impacts of a large war in the region could be huge, especially because Israel is currently fighting wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Allyships between countries and military groups within countries could cause a war between Israel and Iran to turn into a larger-scale war. A war of such a large scale would have international consequences, and it could potentially cause other actors like the U.S. and the EU to become involved.
Although the U.S. has publicly supported Israel, officials have said that they do not support Israel taking aggressive actions against Iran without consulting Washington first and in a timely manner. The U.S. wants to protect its ally, but at the same time, to deter Iran from escalating the conflict and prevent a war in the region that would be costly in terms of both money and lives.
So far, Israel has exercised considerable restraint in its response to Iran’s attacks, which has allowed Iran to downplay the conflict in the media to cool down tensions. According to Ali Vaez, the Iran director of the International Crisis Group, Israel and Iran are now in a situation where both can claim victory, and the conflict does not need to be escalated further. Since Iran has successfully taken revenge for Israel’s attacks and Israel was able to block Iran’s attack, both countries can say that they were, on some level, successful. However, a similar situation, involving careless misjudgment, could end up with far more destructive results in the future.
In order to prevent this situation, both countries must continue to take their time in making military decisions instead of being reactive. It is in both countries’ interests to prevent a larger conflict. Additionally, the international community must continue to advise Israel to hold back in any major responses to Iran’s attack. While the U.S. and other world leaders have already discouraged Israel’s retaliation, they must continue to emphasize that a war would have drastic effects on the international community and would not be supported or aided by Israel’s allies. Israel may be deterred from responding agressively if it knows that it will lose the support of its allies and potentially trigger more disagreements. If Israel is deterred from escalating the conflict, Iran will also likely react more calmly, since it is in Iran’s interest to not face Israel’s powerful allies in a war.
