On Sunday, June 25th 2023, people in Guatemala went to the ballot polls to not only vote for the country’s next president but also the vice president, the congress, the parliament, new mayors, and several municipal councils. The election was therefore of great significance and led to heated discussions before election day. However, it was the outcome of the election which came as a surprise. Due to the fact that Guatemala is a decentralised country in which organised crime and drug traffic influence both the government and policy makers, democracy has been in decline in recent years. Tom Phillips and Jody Garcia reported in their The Guardian article entitled “Guatemala election takes unexpected turn as centrist claims place in runoff” that Guatemala has taken an authoritarian turn in the last couple of years which entailed attacks on media and judges.

Former first lady Sandra Torres and Zury Ríos, the daughter of the former military dictator Efraín Ríos Montt were expected to lead the election. While Sandra Torres came first in the election with 16 percent of the vote, it was not Zury Ríos who came second. Bernardo Arévalo, a professional lawmaker who campaigned to end corruption in Guatemala, won 12 percent of the vote. He and Torres will therefore face each other in a runoff on 20 August 2023. The percentages were extremely low as in addition to a low voter turnout, around 56 percent, many voters left their ballots blank or nullified them. Jody Garcia and Simon Romero quoted in their The New York Times article “What an Election Surprise in Central America Means for Democracy,” the director of the non-profit organisation ‘Citizen Action’, Edie Cux who stated that “We are seeing how the population expresses its fatigue with a system, with a form of politics and government.”  Many argue that the voter behaviour at the polls and the great support for Arévalo highlights the discontent among Guatemalans with corruption and lack of transparency that shapes the politics of the country. The surprising outcome of the election has led to optimism among those Guatemalans who want to see corruption gone.

Corruption has been a root problem in Guatemala for a long time and will be hard to tackle. While being a glimmer of hope for democracy in 2015, the country has since then taken an authoritarian turn. In 2007 the UN-Mission “Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG)” began operating in Guatemala in an international effort to help Guatemala combat corruption. The mission led to anti-corruption prosecutions of prominent politicians and business leaders in the years 2015 to 2018. However, the overall investigations and especially corruption claims made against the former president Jimmy Morales led to efforts by those under investigation to stop the CICIG. Ultimately Morales expelled CICIG in 2019. Since then, the rule of law has been completely overturned, democratic institutions have been eroded and all anti-corruption campaigns were stopped. It cannot be denied that international involvement in the form of the CICIG intensified the rise of corruption since 2015. This was mainly due to the fact that the UN-Mission did not tackle the issue at its root but from above.

It is the case that corruption is a deeply rooted problem in Guatemala and it will therefore not be an easy task to tackle it. Gracia and Romero stated that despite Mr. Arévalo’s triumph, Ms Torres’ position cannot be underestimated. She is widely known among the population and is supported by the current government under President Alejandro Giammattei and the status quo. During Giammattei’s time in office, Guatemala has abandoned its previous efforts to tackle corruption and started to undermine democratic norms. Despite the current outcome of the election, it cannot be neglected that a lot more needs to be done to ensure that change will happen.

Apart from being deeply shaped by corruption, Guatemala is also characterised by gang violence and crime. The 2021 report by the Global Organized Crime Index stated that, “organized crime continues to penetrate the country’s political system.” While the result of the election indicates the population’s discontent with the government and the existing system, it is uncertain whether the system can be actually changed.

The surprising outcome of the election on Sunday shows that change is happening in Guatemala. However, more has to be done in order to consolidate these changes. In order to tackle corruption in Guatemala, underlying issues such as gang violence and drug traffic have to be dealt with as well. Only by treating the issue at its root, the system can be changed. This becomes apparent after looking at the efforts made by the CICIG. While trying to stop corruption it did not succeed as the system and the ruling government was in favour of corruption. Those in power therefore have to support anti-corruption schemes. The election results are a first good step to achieve change, as Bernando Arévalo stands for anti-corruption. However, in order to actually impact the system, Mr. Arévalo needs to intensify his campaign in order to get more support for the election in August. International support for Mr. Arévalo might signal to voters who oppose the old system that he is the right candidate. It is of huge significance to mobilise those voters who did not vote or who nullified their votes on purpose.

Ms. Torres has been accused of corruption in the week before the election and is closely linked to the current system. One can therefore say that Guatemala stands at a crossroads. The outcome of the runoff on 20 August 2023 will determine whether Guatemala remains on the path of corruption or whether it will take the way out. However, it cannot be neglected that even if Mr. Arévalo wins in the election in August, it will be hard to fight against corruption and the current status quo as so many politicians and business leaders benefit from the corruption shaped system. In order to be successful in August Mr. Arévalo has to show voters that he will bring in a completely new government and that he will not only tackle corruption but change the whole system.