Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te stated that it is​​ “impossible” for the People’s Republic of China to become Taiwan’s motherland. China’s desire to claim Taiwan began shortly after the Republic of China government fled to Taiwan during the civil war. Xi Jinping, China’s president, has a vision that China will “surely be reunified” and “achieve the Chinese dream “ by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

The attempt to bring Taiwan under Chinese control is absurd considering the history of Taiwan’s origin and its current government. Records show that the first settlers of Taiwan were soldiers sent from modern-day Southern China by an emperor. However, Austronesian indigenous people – farmers from the southeast coast of China – had settled there years before. Taiwan became a Dutch Colony in the 17th century and was ruled by the Qing Dynasty after cutting a deal with the Dutch. It was then handed over to Tokyo after the Qing lost to Japan in the Sino-Japanese War. Following WW2, Japan was forced to give up its territory and pass the rule to the Republic of China (ROC). However, following the civil war between the Kuomintang(KMT)-led government and The Communist Party, the KMT party fled to Taiwan and ruled Taiwan under the Republic of China. The Chinese Communist Party took over mainland China and established the People’s Republic of China. The PRC has since claimed that Taiwan belongs to them, while Taiwan disagrees. The two major Taiwanese political parties, the KMT party and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), have differing views on the situation. The KMT desires the ROC as the collective representative of China and Taiwan. It rejects the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan’s independence. In contrast, the DPP follows a nationalistic approach, promoting Taiwanese identity and rejecting China’s claims over Taiwan.

To enhance the legitimacy of their claim on Taiwan, China exerts its diplomatic and military power on the international community. The most effective method is their “One China Policy”. The PRC’s One China Policy states that “There is but one China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, and the Government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China.” According to Chon Ja Ian from The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, China’s “One China Policy” of Taiwan belonging to China is currently the international standard and policy most countries adhere to. As China opened up its economy in the late 1970s, there was a need for better relations with Beijing, which resulted in less recognition of Taiwan due to fear of losing economic and political opportunities with Beijing. Despite this, 12 countries do officially recognize Taiwan currently. China uses both forceful and diplomatic motives to emphasize its claim to Taiwan. According to Reuters, China cut off trade with Lithuania due to placing a Taiwanese representative in its capital. China has also discouraged many countries from signing bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements with Taiwan. China is using its power in an attempt to promote fear and undermine Taiwan’s political system. Through increasing global support for the One China Policy, China attempts to legitimize its claim of Taiwan.

The United States plays an important role in preventing conflicts between Taiwan and China. Currently, the U.S. would be considered the glue in keeping peace and stability in the region. The U.S. acknowledges China’s position on Taiwan, without directly endorsing the “One China Policy.” Additionally, the U.S. has six assurances with Taiwan, regarding selling arms, not being a mediator between China and Taiwan, not changing its stance on Taiwanese sovereignty, and allowing solely the PRC and Taiwan to work in diplomatic relations. The U.S.’s relationship with Taiwan along with its rival China makes this relationship precarious. The strategy taken by the U.S. is known as the “policy of deliberate ambiguity”– meaning the U.S. can come to Taiwan’s aid when needed but does not commit to do so. This creates a delicate balance between withholding starting a war with China and protecting Taiwan. The U.S. does not side with Taiwanese independence, acknowledges China’s position, and emphasizes its main goal of maintaining peace and stability. It is up to both China and Taiwan to propose a solution for two contrasting viewpoints. Deterrence can be only viable if the U.S. is willing to commit itself to actually defending Taiwan from China’s military threat. The U.S.’s determent has worked these past years, as there have been no real military conflict.  However, China has grown its military capability over the past decades and is continuing to increase as a dominant global power. Recently, China has increased its intimidation tactics, by employing military drills close to Taiwan in response to unfavorable Taiwanese election results, or in protest of diplomatic visits from other countries. Lai Ching-te believes that Taiwan’s rising economy and global influence have to do with China’s claim for Taiwan.  Taiwan is an essential piece of the global economy. According to the Economist, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, TSMC, produces the most technologically advanced semiconductor chips, which are essential for practically every electronic device and supply more than half of the world’s demand. Ching-tee said that China’s real aim is “to achieve hegemony in the international area, in the Western Pacific.”  By claiming Taiwan, China will be able to continue its dominance in the global economy and wield heavy influence. To prevent any instability in the region, there needs to be an examination of the Taiwanese stance.

The majority of people in Taiwan would like to simply maintain the status quo. There is very little support for immediate independence according to opinion polls conducted by National Chengchi University. Unifying Taiwan with China has even less support, with an overwhelming majority rejecting the “one country, two systems” proposal that would make Taiwan a part of China, but with its autonomy. The “one country two systems” model was applied to Hong Kong in 1997. However, China overreached its bounds by bypassing Hong Kong’s parliament and dampening its freedoms by passing a National Security law which increased state control, implemented overwatch of media and organizations, and the power to interpret the law. The result of the PRC’s involvement in Hong Kong is alarming, as the seemingly fair policy can easily turn threatening to Taiwan’s current democracy and way of life.

The problem with maintaining the status quo is the other player on the table. China does not want to maintain the status quo and wants control over Taiwan. Simply waiting for the “inevitable” change would be a mistake. There must be diplomacy talks to understand if there are any other possibilities. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office claims Lai Ching-te has “sinister intentions” regarding disagreeing with the unification. This rhetoric should not be a part of peace talks and will not help move forward any step towards a sustainable status quo. Once again, this feels like an intended move for China to pin fear on Taiwanese citizens, that they should not think how Mr Lai thinks.

Taiwan and China need to come up with an agreement for maintaining peace. The “One China Policy” seems to be leading to one destination— a war. This is why China continues to use military and diplomatic force to provoke conflicts. Unfortunately, this is a complex issue regarding history, culture, and politics. One potential solution is for international actors to recline the “One China Policy” as an illegitimate claim. If this claim is delegitimized, it would mean that any force conducted by China against Taiwan would be condemned and responded to by the international community. However, China has many allies in the region that would still back the policy. By having the U.S. support Taiwan militarily, they would still be able to deter China from attacking, as the costs China would incur would be exceptionally high. It would be no surprise, nonetheless, if China carried out targeted attacks on infrastructure or cyber attacks as a response to the international community rejecting the “One China Policy.” Ultimately, China has to let go of its dream of unifying with Taiwan and be open to a friendly diplomatic status. The first step to resolving the issue is to have open dialogue throughout the international community and in both Taiwan and China. An option could be to have Taiwanese and Chinese representatives in their respective governments to strengthen political ties and communication between them.

Xi Jinping’s dream of Taiwan becoming part of China by 2049 begs the question as to how far he will go to reach his desire. It is essential to keep an eye on the relationship between China and Taiwan. The two political entities differ both politically and economically. Taiwan’s democracy is strong, and its economy is consistently growing, becoming a strong trading partner for the West. China, run by a communist party, is the second largest economy. Both would benefit from trading with each other. However, China’s claims have caused political tensions, economic losses, and the risk of military conflict. The status quo provides Taiwan with protection from China due to deterrence. Although the status quo is preferred, the risk of violence is alarmingly high. Diplomacy needs to be at the forefront, and a solution to the complex claim has to be resolved. Currently, international actors must be there to inhibit the much more powerful China, which does not seem to settle for long-term peace. For now, the status quo will be enough for peace, but serious change is needed to ensure a future without violence.