Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and now Gabon are the latest countries to have experienced a military takeover and are currently being led by military regimes. Despite condemnation from the Economic Community of West African States and from the African Union, the citizens in each of these countries are elated about the removal of the democratically elected governments and continue to demonstrate their support for the military juntas. The coups came as a result of government corruption that affected both the economic and military activities of these countries, which not only caused public dissidence and nationwide protests, but also left the army ill-equipped to defend its borders against Jihadists. This report examines the three main coup triggers in the Sahel and proposes a way forward to end the coup cycle.

Africa is the region with the most coups in the world, with 220 attempted and failed coups between 1950 and 2023, accounting for 44 percent of the world’s attempted coups. Sudan tops the list with 17 coups since 1950; Burundi is second with 11; Ghana and Sierra Leone are third with 10 attempted coups each. The majority (58 percent) of Africa’s coups occurred in the West African and Sahel region. There are three main coup triggers: government corruption, the security crisis in the region, and constitutional crises.

Government corruption is common all over the world, but in Africa and especially in the Sahel region, corruption in the government has deeply affected many aspects of life. Government officials are often accused of embezzling public funds and of nepotism. In Niger, more than 100 million dollars of public money was reported to be lost in a series of potentially corrupt international arms deals. In Mali, former president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was known for nepotism, as he appointed family members in key government positions such as his son, Karim Keitam, who was appointed to President of the National Assembly Defence Committee.

Burkina Faso’s former Minister of Transport, Vincent Dabilgou, was found guilty, sentenced to 11 years in prison, and fined 3.3 billion FCFA (4.7 million euros) for “embezzlement of public funds,” (including 1.12 billion FCFA, or around 1.7 million euros), “illicit enrichment,” and “money laundering,” according to Africanews. These kinds of activities intensified poverty, causing nationwide protests and public dissatisfaction. However, the most disruptive effect was leaving the army ill-equipped against insurgencies.

The Sahel region has been stricken with a long history of instability. For example, Mali has been fighting Islamist militants in the country for more than 10 years. Likewise, Burkina Faso has fought for eight years against groups allied to both al-Qaeda and I.S.I.L. (I.S.I.S.), and Niger has been fighting insurgents from neighbouring countries including Boko Haram since 2015. Moreover, Boko Haram is also operating in the Lake Chad Basin at the intersection of Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. Unfortunately, due to the lack of support from governments, the armies found themselves ill-equipped against these insurgencies. This lack of support led to many casualties on the front lines, adding to the army’s frustrations and motive to overthrow the government. “Burkina Faso’s army is profoundly ill-equipped and unprepared for the war it’s asked to fight. It’s out of its depth. Its frustration with an equally out-of-its-depth government is understandable,” said Michael Shurkin, a former political analyst at the C.I.A. and director of global programmes at 14 North Strategies. In Mali, the army in 2019 was described as “catastrophic” by former security adviser Gakou. He further stated that “the defence minister while visiting at the end of 2019 learnt that the soldiers did not have water in the camp,” highlighting the lack of support the army received from the government.

However, there is also corruption within the army itself that is affecting its progress against the insurgencies. Junior soldiers in Mali often accuse officers of stealing money “to swagger in the drawing rooms of Bamako.” Mali has also been haunted by defence spending scandals for an extended period. These scandals involve the embezzlement of funds, inflated prices, and the purchase of helicopters that were never put into operation.

Another coup trigger that has been common not only in the Sahel region but in most of Africa is the attempt from African leaders to run for a third term by manipulating constitutional amendment processes, committing electoral fraud, and suppressing oppositions. In Mali, the ruling party’s efforts to manipulate the outcome of the 2020 parliamentary elections in favour of candidates backed by the president resulted in protests demanding the government’s resignation. Following a prolonged stalemate, the military capitalized on the situation and orchestrated a coup in August 2020.

The same pattern has been seen in Guinea, where the September 2021 military coup occurred as a result of a lengthy political crisis which was initiated by President Alpha Conde’s attempt to remove term limits and seek a third term in office through a constitutional referendum in March 2020. This move led to boycotts from opposition and civil society groups when Conde was re-elected amidst violent clashes between protesters and security forces, resulting in numerous fatalities. Less than a year after his controversial re-election, a coup removed him from power. In short, corruption in government and within the army has been the root cause of coups in the Sahel region, causing nationwide protests and an ill-equipped army to defend its borders. This should be taken into consideration and necessary measures should be taken to address the issue.

The following states should consider investing in state institutions that strengthen and protect constitutional democracy, such as the six independent state institutions from Chapter Nine of the South African Constitution of 1996. These state institutions can be described as watchdogs that keep the government in check. However, in the South African context, these institutions are not a branch of government; they do not have the power to take disciplinary actions against government officials. Their role is purely investigatory and administrative, providing a link between government and citizens.

As an example, the office of the Public Protector is one of the six independent state institutions established by South Africa’s Constitution to support and defend democracy in the country. It does this by acting as a “defender of people’s rights against the abuses of public office, corruption, mismanagement and negligence,” and by “[promoting] good governance and access to justice for the poorest people,” as explained by Kasipo and Majola. The mandate of the office of the Public Protector includes investigating any conduct in state affairs or public administration in any sphere of government that is alleged or suspected to be improper or to result in any impropriety or prejudice. For example, thanks to the Public Protector, 11 officials from the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa resigned and 33 others were suspended after being implicated in investigations into a R3.5 billion locomotive tender.

An institution such as the South African Public Protector is especially needed in troubled democracies of West Africa, where states are prone to recurring coups, where many citizens still live in poverty and have limited access to public services and their political leaders, and where corruption amongst government officials is rife. Therefore, adapting these institutions to their constitution or strengthening them would help combat recurring coups by curbing government corruption that has played a key role in leading West African countries to coups.

Currently, these countries are in a very important transitional period where power is planned to be transferred back to civilian rule with potentially new constitutions. Junta leaders in Guinea and Gabon have already proposed the creation of a new constitution in a bid to meet the needs and realities of the citizens, while Malian citizens have already voted on a new constitution proposed by the junta leaders to pave the way to new elections. The new constitutions must include measures to end the recurring coups in the region.