On 9th August, 2022 the Republic of Kenya will undergo one of its most contested Presidential elections in recent years. The nation’s former Deputy President, William Ruto will stand against long-time politician Raila Odinga. The stakes are high leading up to this election, as Kenyans continue to be rocked by a cost-of-living crisis as well as rampant corruption and severe inequality. The months leading into and falling out of elections have often been the most violent in Kenya’s post-independence history. With thousands killed and hundreds of thousands displaced in election cycles since 2007, along with social unrest in a difficult economy, prospects may be slim for a peaceful outcome in 2022. However, there is also much to say about a Kenyan public that has grown tired of mass politics and become jaded. The fact that most citizens seem to want a quick end to the disruptive elections and a return to ordinary life could bode well for a more peaceful election. To better understand the ramifications of Tuesday’s vote, we must examine Kenya’s political context and its relationship with Tribal and Class conflict.

The advent of multi-party democracy in 1992 in Kenya led to the ethnicization of politics, with parties coalescing around tribal power brokers and an ever-changing landscape as inter-ethnic alliances were formed and disbanded. Without parties based on consistent political ideologies, the use of tribal identities and manipulation of ethnic tensions remains a cornerstone of political mobilization. The threat and use of violence therefore looms over every election cycle. With COVID-19 exacerbating the economic inequities between Kenyans, there is potential for solidarity that transcends ethnicity to emerge, as well as for politicians to manipulate the situation to heighten inter-ethnic disputes.

The core element of Kenya 2022 has been a binary between the so-called dynasties and what William Ruto refers to as the Hustlers otherwise known as the Wananchi, the common man. Despite the emergence of new parties in every election season, the same elite have remained in power for generations, with the same names and faces running in every election. This is due to the dominance of political families over Kenyan society. Whether it be the Kenyattas, Odingas or to a lesser extent the Mois, each of Kenya’s former leaders have established lineages that have enjoyed a generational stranglehold on power.

William Ruto has struck a populist chord in his campaign, calling for ‘bottom-up economics’, claiming that through his presidency he will empower Kenya’s working masses and liberate them form ‘the tyranny of the dynasty’. Ruto’s newly formed United Democratic Alliance (UDA) asserts it will transform Kenya into a ‘Hustler Nation’, an ideology which bypasses ethnic divisions and appeals to the shared economic interests of Kenya’s workers, tradespeople, and emerging entrepreneurs. According to the UDA, Kenya will become a nation ran ‘by the hustlers, for the hustlers and of the hustlers.’ This message has been very popular not only with Ruto’s own Kalenjin people, but also with the Gikuyu, Embu and Meru (GEMA) powerbase, boding fantastically well for his presidential bid. Despite his populist anti-dynasty rhetoric, it must remain clear that Ruto was very close to former President Daniel Arap Moi and has been engaged in a long spat with his son Gideon Moi, over who his father’s rightful successor is, and who should inherit the mantle of Kalenjin leadership. Where he may not be biologically related to the former President, Ruto’s connections to Moi have contributed to his rise. Moreover, Ruto was the Deputy President of Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee government, before breaking away and forming UDA and the Hustler narrative. For many Kenyans, this only represents more of the same, where new parties rise as fundraising vehicles for the same old politicians.

Raila Odinga has meanwhile gained the endorsement of outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta, despite having campaigned against him in the past, as the now infamous Handshake in March 2018 put an end to the chaotic post-election fallout from 2017. The two went on to push for the controversial Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), which pledged to end electoral injustices and unite Kenyan citizens. However, the October 2020 BBI report, which called for changes to the Kenyan Constitution to address ‘issues of political inclusivity’, received mixed reviews from Kenyans, causing Raila and Uhuru to campaign together throughout the country to popularise it. DP Ruto and his supporters opposed the report, criticising it as being designed to secure positions for current leaders in an expanded executive and undermine Kenya’s judiciary. In the end, BBI was torpedoed by the Courts to worldwide acclaim, tarnishing Raila’s own populist image. Having Uhuru’s overt support also hurts Odinga, as the Kenyattas are unpopular among his Luo base and in Kenya more broadly, even among kikuyus. Despite attempts to woo Kenyans with pledges ranging from Universal Healthcare to granting stipends to disadvantaged people, it has been difficult for Odinga to reignite the same zeal from his supporters as in past campaigns.

As for the Wananchi, life goes on beyond this election. There is a jaded sense that nothing will fundamentally change about Kenyan politics or society, no matter who wins. With a cost-of-living crisis, soaring national debt, and a healthcare system in shambles amid sky-high inequality, ordinary Kenyans continue to hustle, striving for material uplift. Politics has become a distant, abstract sponge, absorbing the surplus value and wealth created by working Kenyans while offering little in return. The elite plays politics in their helicopters while Kenyans of all ethnicities continue to hustle and endure. Though Tuesday’s outcome is still uncertain, one thing is clear: many Kenyans find this election disruptive to their trades and are praying for a quick, peaceful end so that business may resume. Herein lies a true hustler narrative which unifies all Kenyans, transcending ethnicity, religious and political preference.

Where this is promising for unity, it is an indictment for Kenyan democracy. If the citizenry sees the hustle as their only route to a better life, and proceed to ignore politics altogether, then it could open the door to a new type of authoritarianism as vicious as that of Moi, but with remaining open to markets and money. A jaded body-politic would see no reason to oppose it, so long as their trades and businesses are not disrupted. This is not the people’s fault. It simply means that multipartyism and liberal democracy have not delivered for Kenyans. After Tuesday, Kenyan democracy still has a long journey ahead, as all Kenyans grapple with major challenges while trying to live a decent life. But mass disillusionment in the political theatre stage could be a huge step toward breaking the cycle of post-election ethnic clashes.