June 20th, 2019. A gentle breeze caresses the streets of Pyongyang, an unusual reprieve from summer’s warmth. The city, cloaked in its austere rhythm, seemed momentarily softened, as if exhaling. Yet at Pyongyang Sunan International Airport, the air was charged—not with weather, but with anticipation. The coolness outside was a stark contrast to the simmering tension and expectancy that electrified the terminal, every movement and glance a whisper of unspoken significance.

At the foot of a Boeing 737 stood North Korea’s Supreme Leader, Kim Jong Un. Clad in his signature Mao suit and flanked by his wife and an entourage of senior military officials, he awaited an important guest. As the aircraft’s door opened, the air thickened with anticipation. Kim’s smile broadened as his distinguished guest descended from the metallic behemoth. Suddenly, thousands of balloons were released and a 21-gun salute was heard. Kim had just welcomed his most important ally, China’s Xi Jinping, into his hermit kingdom.

Although the gesture and the presence of Kim Jong Un at the airport demonstrate to the world an image of ironclad friendship, 21st-century China-North Korea relations are bound by countless intrigues and complexities. Beneath this seemingly tight camaraderie is a story shaped by competing interests, historical grievances, and shifting geopolitical calculations.

The People’s Republic of China, as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s neighbor, has historically been its closest partner and ally. China has had significant influence over North Korea through economic aid and diplomatic cooperation. Approximately 98% of North Korea’s trade—both imports and exports—is tied to China, making Beijing indispensable to Pyongyang’s economic stability. This trade relationship sustains North Korea’s commodity markets, ensuring the flow of essential goods and resources in the face of international sanctions and widespread isolation. From fuel and food supplies to industrial equipment, China’s economic lifeline underpins the survival of the North Korean regime and its controlled economy.

North Korea’s economy was severely tested during the COVID-19 pandemic when Pyongyang decided to close all borders, suspending international tourism into the country, but most importantly, halting the exchange of goods. Although North Korea projects to its citizens that the country can produce medical equipment such as ventilators, masks, and monitors, the country’s medical imports from China skyrocketed before the state admitted its first case of the virus. The abrupt border closure saw its overall trade with China fall by 80% and the country soon discovered that it could not do what it claimed to do—produce essential goods. The disruption of fertilizer and grain imports further worsened the country’s food shortages. As goods from China became scarce, unofficial markets in North Korea, or Jangmadang, which citizens rely on for food and other goods, began to close. A BBC interview published on June 14th, 2023 detailed how even residents of Pyongyang began to starve. Only the most powerful, loyal, and privileged citizens can live in North Korea’s capital.

For Beijing, this economic relationship is much bigger than just trade; its geopolitical significance is incalculable. Through trade, China possesses a strategic instrument that can influence North Korea, which in turn provides China with a buffer zone against South Korea and American troops stationed on the peninsula. American troops being close to the border is a longstanding fear in China, as it would exert pressure on China’s northeastern provinces. Another reason why China’s economic relationship with North Korea is so crucial for Beijing is that it prevents a mass exodus of North Koreans into China.

A sudden collapse of the North Korean regime, whether due to economic, military, or internal reasons, would lead to an enormous humanitarian crisis. Millions of North Koreans would flood into China’s Liaoning and Jilin provinces, where ethnic Koreans reside. North Korean refugees, who do not speak Chinese, would present a problem as China’s northeastern provinces are relatively underdeveloped compared to its coastal regions, and a surge in population, especially unskilled and uneducated, would place a catastrophic strain on resources, infrastructure, and labor market. Moreover, a mass influx of immigrants would cause China’s northeast, where its economy has stagnated over the past decade, to severely destabilize, and so would its society.

Additionally, there have been signs of growing tensions in the relationship between North Korea and China, particularly concerning North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. China’s stance on this issue is nuanced as on one hand it appreciates the strategic value of North Korea’s stability, but on the other, it is concerned with Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions and its broad implications.

Ever since North Korea tested its first nuclear weapon in 2006, Beijing viewed Pyongyang possessing nuclear weapons as a strategic liability. Numerous North Korean missile tests have resulted in the destabilization of the meticulously maintained peace of the Korean peninsula, and the possibility of war has made China nervous. Each missile test adds to the increasing likelihood of a miscalculation, which would entail catastrophic consequences for the region, as such a conflict would inevitably draw in the United States, which China does not want to see happen. For China, this troubling scenario would not only threaten border security but would disrupt key economic trade routes and trigger a humanitarian disaster. China also does not rule out the limited possibility that North Korea would use nuclear weapons against China. Thus, China has supported multiple United Nations sanctions against North Korea to curb Pyongyang’s nuclear program, approving Security Council Resolution 1718, which imposes several sanctions against North Korea; and 1874, which expanded the existing sanctions.

For China’s diplomacy, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program also deserves to be treated with care. Although Beijing has acted as Pyongyang’s primary lifeline and ally, Chinese leaders are also very sensitive to the international backlash they would face for not taking a harder stance against the North Korean nuclear program. Beijing—who seeks to maintain the image of a rising power and establish itself as a stabilizing factor on the international stage—is reluctant to let Pyongyang tarnish its image, which would result in a loss of its diplomatic influence. Therefore, Beijing is reaching for a balancing act: on one side it is supporting the North Korean state from collapsing, and on the other side it is opposing nuclear brinkmanship that would destabilize regional peace. In this matter, Beijing is highly strained by the often contradicting priorities it has to face when dealing with North Korea.

Simply put, China’s relations with North Korea are one of dynamic interdependence and strategic necessity. Having long abandoned the ideological aspect of their alliance, the current relationship between the two countries is highly based on geopolitical priorities. China’s support for North Korea exposes Beijing to the risks of Pyongyang’s seemingly erratic behavior, of which China disapproves. Since Beijing views any North Korean unpredictability as an inherent liability, Pyongyang uses this fear as a key leverage against China to extract maximum support and aid. For North Korea, the survival of the Kim regime is paramount to any diplomatic goals, and thus having a stable, reliable, and friendly Xi Jinping as the leader of China is indispensable.