Raining Rockets: Israel Strikes Lebanon While Region Braces For Escalation

On January 2nd, 2024, a drone-launched missile hit the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut, killing Saleh Arouri, a high-ranked Hamas officer and leader of West Bank Hamas. According to a CNN report, Saleh Arouri was also a Hamas liaison to the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. An additional six people were killed in the strike against Arouri, according to the Associated Press. Hamas confirmed that Arouri was killed along with six other members of the group. Israel has yet to take responsibility for the attack, even after a barrage of rockets was fired from the Lebanese border in retaliation for the drone strike.

Following the bombing in Lebanon, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said it would be a mistake to think that Israel is planning on halting the war. Gallant made a televised address stating, “The feeling that we will stop soon is incorrect…Without a clear victory, we will not be able to live in the Middle East.” Other Israel Defense Force spokespersons have stopped short of claiming responsibility for the attack, former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, wrote on Platform X, “Anyone who was involved in the (October 7th) massacre should know that we will reach out to them and close an account with them.” In response to the strike, the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, spoke publicly about the expansion of the war into Lebanon, “We are not afraid of war. Those who think of going to war with us will regret it. War with us will come at a very, very, very high cost… Yesterday’s crime will not go unpunished.” In addition, the Prime Minister of Lebanon made a public statement on Tuesday, “We call on the concerned countries to put pressure on Israel to stop its targeting. We also warn against the Israeli political level resorting to exporting its failures in Gaza to the southern border.”

Israel continues to escalate tensions in the Levant and threatens to unleash a regional conflict with its brazen airstrikes. The United States must unilaterally and clearly demand an immediate cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. The alliance between Hezbollah and Iran must be understood as a tripwire for the entire region, even if Iran is not physically present in direct hostilities in Lebanon. The material support provided by Iran will make any military operations very violent for the IDF, not including the potential for mass rocket attacks in northern Israel. The chain reaction of events could bring the United States into direct conflict with Iran and lead to the largest conflict in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. It is worth remembering that Iran has the potential to develop nuclear weapons and very well could possess basic nuclear capabilities. Israel also has a substantial nuclear stockpile, even if Israel does not officially recognize this fact. If the United States and Israel are co-belligerents in a war with Iran and its proxies, the consequences may be too horrible to imagine.

The strike in Lebanon comes after several similar attacks on Hamas leadership and Hezbollah infrastructure. The stated goal of operations in Gaza is to destroy Hamas, but the most high-ranked leader of Hamas was killed beyond Israel’s borders. The direct actions of Israel are not the only factor that could lead to a general conflict, an ISIS-linked terror bombing in Iran was previously thought to be a result of Israeli intelligence until the Islamic State claimed responsibility. As the conflict escalates, unplanned events may occur and force harsher retaliation by all parties involved. The legacy of the United States’ War on Terror cannot be overstated. The legal justifications used by the United States in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria have been adopted by Israel to provide legal cover for otherwise illegal military actions in Lebanon.

On January 6th, 2024, Hezbollah responded to the Israeli airborne assassination with a barrage of rockets aimed at northern Israel. If this pattern of action-reaction continues, Hezbollah could begin to fire advanced ballistic missiles into highly populated Israeli cities. The tactics demonstrated by Hamas in the October 7th attacks prove a weakness in the Israeli Iron Dome system. Hezbollah may send hundreds of high-powered missiles that dwarf the capabilities of Hamas’s rocket stockpile. The tactic of sending huge waves of rockets instead of piecemeal single strikes is now a proven method of overwhelming the targeting systems of the Iron Dome, which is considered the most advanced ballistic defense system in the world. The potential damage of a Hezbollah missile barrage would overshadow the ‘success’ of Hamas’s rocket attack on Israel. Each attack that widens the ongoing conflict in Gaza risks dragging the world into a devastating conflict in the Middle East that could send shock waves throughout the globe. It must be the policy and goal of all developed nations to end hostilities lest the consequences grow beyond human control immediately.  

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