MUSCAT, Oman — Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani recently made an official visit to Muscat, Oman, in hopes of initiating negotiations with Iraq, Iran, and other gulf states on the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf states are expected to push for free transit with an emphasis on free trade, while Iran may push back with proposed security and environmental fees (Reuters). 

The talks are separate from those between the United States and Iran, which largely aim to broker a peaceful end to the U.S./Iran conflict and de-mine the Strait of Hormuz. They are also separate from the proposed reconciliation talks between Iran and its regional neighbors, expected to take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Middle East Eye reported. These proposed talks instead look largely to the future maritime operations of the Strait, including navigation, administration, and security (Marine Insight).   

At the time of this article, a new wave of attacks has taken place in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported U.S. strikes across Iran in response to attacks on three commercial vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Iran pushed back further, targeting U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the interim deal with Iran, which allowed the safe passage of ships through the Strait for several weeks, is now “over” and has said working with Iranian authorities was a “waste of time” (Al Jazeera).

The instability that has held such a tight grip on the Strait for the past four-plus months highlights the need for talks regarding future operations of the Strait of Hormuz. With roughly 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas transiting the Strait, it is a choke-point for global energy needs and economic productivity. Regional and international cooperation will be imperative to restore the safety and predictability of transit across the Strait.

Gulf countries have historically been—and many still are—heavily reliant on oil and gas exports for income, making the Strait’s closure immensely damaging to their economies. Perhaps even more damaging, however, would be allowing the Strait to remain closed (or too expensive/unpredictable to transit) long enough that buyers begin a more aggressive transition to renewables and energy independence. While the Strait’s closure has put immense stress on international energy chains, it has also provided an opportunity to move away from reliance on oil and gas. N.P.R. recently reported a “supercharged” adoption of renewables and electric vehicles due to the adverse effects on energy costs and availability that resulted from the war between the U.S. and Iran. Many of these adverse effects are intricately linked with, if not a direct result of, the frequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Qatari P.M.’s visit to Oman, as well as the upcoming reconciliation talks in Riyadh, are indicative of a regional awareness of this risk. Iran possesses tremendous leverage in closing the Strait, but this leverage begins to fade the longer they hold out as countries are forced to reckon with the weaknesses of their energy infrastructure and dependence on foreign oil. Iran will have to weigh these risks as they proceed in negotiations with the U.S., Qatar, Oman, and other regional actors.