This past Sunday, a joint statement was issued via Saudi Arabia’s state news agency SPA, in which Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Bahrain granted Qatar an extra 48 hours to comply with the 13-item list of demands imposed on it. The original deadline was set for Sunday, but has since elapsed. The decision to grant extra time (which expires on Tuesday) was made following a request by Kuwait, which played a mediator role in the crisis which began on June 5. It has also been reported that Qatar delivered its official, though unrevealed, response to the blockading countries’ demands during a visit to Kuwait on Monday by its foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani. It remains unclear if any punitive measures will be taken against Qatar should it fail to comply with its demands. The list includes demands such as cutting off ties with Iran, expelling members of the Muslim Brotherhood from Qatar, and shutting down Al-Jazeera (a supposed source of instability in the region). Commercial bankers in the region also speculate that Saudi, Emirati, and Bahraini banks might receive official notices to pull deposits and inter-bank loans from Qatar. That comes as no surprise, as Egypt and blockading countries from the Gulf Cooperation Council have always insisted that the demands were non-negotiable.
Meanwhile, various political actors have weighed in with their thoughts on these recent developments. On Monday, British Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, welcomed the first signs of flexibility in the Gulf Crisis, and said that unity across the Gulf was vital. This opinion is consistent with that of his American counterpart; US President Donald Trump spoke with both sides on Sunday and there are increased expectations for mutual concessions by all sides. Qatar is expected to give into demands concerning overseas funding, while it is expected that Saudi Arabia and others will provide compromises of their own, in response.
Nonetheless, the deadline extension in itself represents a potential turning-point pertaining to the tension witnessed over the last month. It shows that Saudi Arabia may, in fact, choose to abandon their zero-sum approach by adopting a more lenient stance towards its neighbour, a crucial partner in the global war on terror, despite the attempts to paint it as a sponsor of said terror. Over the coming days, it will be interesting to learn the details of Qatar’s response as they are disclosed. Of equal importance, will be the response of the Saudi-led blockade countries in reaction to Qatar’s response.
Also worth mentioning is how, in the weeks leading up to Sunday’s joint announcement for an extra 48 hours, the tension and apprehension felt by Western officials was more than palpable. Tension, largely born out of a miscalculation by a coalition of countries whose aggressive economic and political sanctions, in conjunction with the aforementioned demands, served to heighten tensions in a region already plagued by ongoing armed civil conflicts (not to mention, the ISIS shaped-war on terror). All of which lends a significant importance to the role of the United States Department of State and Defense, respectively. By refusing to openly side with Saudi Arabia — a sharp contrast to the stance currently adopted by the Trump White House — in opposition to Qatar, the likes of Rex Tillerson has promoted a more conciliatory approach to what is now widely considered to be the worst-ever crisis in the Gulf region. This approach was paired with decisive action taken by the US senator and president of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Bob Corker, who blocked the sale of a portion of proposed $110 billion arms deal between Saudi Arabia and the United States. In doing so, both the executive and legislative branches of government have removed what served as an incentive for the Western-backed Saudi and co. to pursue aggressive tactics against Qatar. It is hoped that this measure—despite only partially covering the arms deal and not all of it—along with rebukes at the blockading countries, will ultimately bring about constructive dialogue.
With the evolving series of events, it remains to be seen whether the lack of cohesive US foreign policy towards the Middle East will begin to take shape as the Trump Administration nears the halfway point of his first year in office. Adopting a consistent and well-thought-out approach concerning the Middle East can bring about the unified front that the US and major regional powers need. Over the last month, this type of approach was successfully demonstrated with priority issues like the conflict in Yemen and Syria, and war against ISIS. Failure to do so will make it difficult to tackle diplomatic crises like the one being witnessed today.
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