On Monday, May 30th, 2022, Russian leader Vladimir Putin stated that he was willing to facilitate the transport of grain through Ukrainian ports in collaboration with Turkey. However, on Friday, June 3rd, that proposed plan changed, with President Putin now suggesting that the best solution would be to export Ukrainian grain through Belarussian ports. These statements were made amid a worsening global food crisis caused by the Russian government’s decision to invade Ukraine. In response, dozens of Western states have sanctioned Russian commodities in retaliation.

Putin and President Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey discussed plans for a potential brokered agreement between Moscow, Kyiv, and the UN. Erdogan discussed his desire for Turkey to act as an “observation mechanism” to ensure that Russian aggression does not impact the export of grain through Ukrainian ports. The Kremlin seemed to support Erdogan’s intentions, stating: “During the discussion of the situation in Ukraine, emphasis was placed on ensuring safe navigation in the Black and Azov seas and eliminating the mine threat in their waters,” and “Vladimir Putin noted the readiness of the Russian side to facilitate the unhindered sea transit of goods in coordination with Turkish partners. This also applies to the export of grain from Ukrainian ports.” Erdogan appealed to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, stating that Turkey “especially valued the project to create a secure sea route for exporting Ukrainian agricultural products.” 

Since June 3rd, it seems Putin has abandoned the plan of allowing grain export through Ukrainian ports in favor of attempting to use the global food crisis as leverage to remove Western sanctions on Belarus. Putin has used Ukraine’s self-defense mechanisms, such as the placement of mines in the Black Sea, as an excuse for the Kremlin’s refusal to allow exports through Ukraine. Putin stated he has “…already told all our colleagues many times: let them clear the mines and let the ships loaded with grain leave the ports. We guarantee their peaceful passage into international waters without any problems.” Additionally, Putin met with President Macky Sall of Senegal, who is also the current leader of the African Union. Their discussion revolved around food commodity exports to African countries from Russia, both of which have suffered from the supply-chain blockage. Sall tweeted after their meeting, stating that: “President Putin has expressed to us his willingness to facilitate the export of Ukrainian cereals.” 

The reverberations of Russian aggression in Ukraine have now been felt globally due to the global economic and food crisis generated by the blockage of grain exports from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. Russia and Ukraine generate 29% of global wheat exports and 80% of sunflower oil exports. Belarus exports tons of potash, fertilizer potassium that is used for crop cultivation. U.S.-based military analyst Glen Howard posited that Ukrainian crops have a limited life cycle and would start to rot by July. Therefore, the export situation would need to be resolved within the coming weeks to preserve the viability of the crops. 

Given Putin’s history of reneging on non-aggression promises and other global deals, Western nations should not lift sanctions on Belarus. The change in Russian rhetoric regarding crop exports in the past week alone shows that Putin is a flighty actor who will manipulate the circumstances as necessary to produce the best outcome possible for the Russian state. Instead, Western actors and the UN should consider meeting Putin in the middle. Exports through Ukrainian ports could be facilitated by UN peacekeeping forces and Turkey if Russia was willing to show a period of non-aggression. Otherwise, Western nations should look into other alternatives to Ukrainian, Russian, and Belarussian food commodities.