On May 15th, the United Nations in Somalia welcomed the conclusion of the nation’s election, praising the “positive” electoral process and peaceful transfer of power as Hassan Sheikh Mohamud prevailed over Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmajo” to become Somalia’s new president. James Swan, the U.N. Secretary General’s Special Representative for Somalia, said that he would “like to congratulate the newly-elected President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud on his victory tonight,” while U.N. Secretary General António Guterres conveyed hope that the new president move swiftly to form an inclusive cabinet and that the new government and federal states work closely together to advance critical national concerns. From the effects of climate change to the need for long-term political stability, the Hassan administration has its work cut out for it. Moving forward from this election, what chance is there for meaningful progress in Somalia?
Annite Weber, the European Union Special Representative to the Horn of Africa, emphasizes Somalia’s need to build a political settlement first and foremost. She claims that “a settlement forms the basis for agreement on issues related to the federalization process and the rule of law. It would also lay the groundwork … for constitution making and State building.” Weber believes this settlement could serve as a foundation for Somalia to strengthen its security apparatus, ensuring its armed forces have a smooth takeover from the African Transition Mission in Somalia (A.T.M.I.S.) peacekeeping mission.
Weber also highlights a need to foster economic growth to boost the government’s legitimacy. Michael Keating, Executive Director of the European Institute for Peace, agrees with Weber, specifically emphasizing the need for economic growth and market development to achieve stability.
While these prescriptions may be valid, it is important not to lose sight of realities on the ground from a Somali perspective.
President Hassan has inherited many challenges from his predecessor, including a rise in terrorist attacks from the al Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab group. In March alone, two suicide bombings killed 48 people in central Somalia, while an attack on an A.U. base earlier in May killed ten Burundian peacekeepers. Al Jazeera reports the attack was the “deadliest raid on A.U. forces in the country since 2015.”
The U.N., meanwhile, has forecasted that the current drought could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe on par with the 2011 famine, which claimed 260,000 lives, unless immediate action is taken.
The Hassan administration also must ameliorate the damage caused by political infighting, both on an executive level and between the central government and state authorities.
The scope of these challenges is arguably bigger than any one election or administration and will require continuous effort beyond the ballot box.
Contrary to the optimism from global commentators, feeling within Somalia has been notedly weary. Despite the peaceful transfer of power, most of the 36 presidential candidates were old faces, whom many saw as having done little to stem war and corruption. This leaves Somalis with a sense that money changing hands, rather than the people’s vote, is what determines political power.
Gazing into Somalia’s electoral system only seems to justify this fear. Clan elders pick delegates, who then select 275 members of the House of Representatives and 54 members of the Senate. Once appointed, these lawmakers cast a vote to select the next president, who in turn picks a prime minister. The P.M. then forms a government by appointing a cabinet.
Analyzing this system makes it clear that even after this peaceful election, Somalia remains in the clutches of clan elders and political elites. Meanwhile, the masses continue to be disaffected from a system that hasn’t had a one person-one vote election in decades.
Given this evidence, Somalia likely has a long way to go before it can reach a political settlement which represents the populace, resolves squabbles among an insular elite, and lays the foundation for a credible security apparatus. Without this settlement as a foundation, climate breakdown, rising terrorism, and stimulating economic vitality will continue to be major concerns, not just for Somalia, but for the entire Horn of Africa region.
Although the situation is bleak, it is still possible to find silver linings. Not only did the election conclude peacefully, but more significantly, former president Mohamed Abdullahi offered his support to the incoming administration. In his concession speech Mohamed said that his successor was facing big obstacles and called for unity. “Let us pray for the new president, it is a very tedious task,” he said. “We will be in solidarity with him.” This shows an appetite for political reconciliation, while Somalia’s international partners appear committed to co-operation. This optimism and teamwork are needed on Somalia’s long road to stability.
I write detailed and informative pieces with an ambition to be part of what elevates African stories beyond the media periphery. I believe my writing, along with the rest of the team, can make big strides towards this goal.
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