Despite a backdrop of pandemic and protests, Guinea has held a constitutional referendum that could allow president Alpha Condé, aged 82, to remain in office for another twelve years. Despite clear contestation, Condé is proposing alterations to the constitution which would codify gender equality as well as introduce various social reforms. Critics speculate that his real motive is to reset the presidential term limits. If these changes were implemented, they would allow Condé to run for a third term in office – a viable possibility feared by many.
During the presidential inauguration in December 2015, constitutional court justice Kelefa Sall – who was involved in co-writing the 2010 constitution reinstating two-term limits – warned Condé “to not fall for the siren call of revisionism”. This plea has evidently fallen on deaf ears, as evidence supports Condé’s self-interested actions behind the scenes. For instance, billboards and banners endorsing a new constitution emerged in the capital city. Likewise, the referendum – originally scheduled for March 1 – was pushed back due to internationally raised concerns surrounding equity and honesty. The referendum was boycotted by the opposition.
The proposal to change the constitution has been very controversial in the West African state, spurring mass demonstrations in which at least 32 people have been killed since October 2019, according to an AFP news agency tally. The authorities went ahead with the referendum after abrading 2.5 million unverifiable names from the electoral register. With a total of merely 7.7. million people being registered to vote from of a total population of 13 million people as recorded by the Economic Community of West African States, the vote risks becoming a bellwether for the impending presidential election. According to reports by Aljazeera, authorities claimed that only a few deaths occurred on election day, and that voting “took place in peace.”
Speaking to Le Figaro newspaper in 2019, Condé stated, “The Guinean people will ask this question: Is it the first time that a president changes the constitution to do a third or fourth term? Why would it be impossible in Guinea to do three mandates?” In many African countries, the provisions of the constitution exist solely on paper. A primary motivation for African presidents to change their constitutions is to ensure regime survival and suit their parochial needs. This ensures their actions become legitimised in the public eye. For instance, there are seemingly positive outcomes for Condé’s promise to improve women’s rights – reformations in areas include banning female genital mutilation and underage marriage, and giving spouses equal rights in a divorce – yet might not look the same once implemented.
However, after months of violent outbreaks, it is only natural to approach the upcoming election results and its aftermath with extreme caution. Oppositional leader Cellou Dalein Diallo, stated, “This crisis was not our choice. Our choice would have been that laws are respected and that the rule of law was applied”. Diallo went on to describe Condé as a “historical opponent” fighting for democracy and the protection of human rights. “But since he started exercising power, I have noted that it was exclusively to take control of the country, enrich his own and really exercise absolute power … who would have thought that it was under Alpha Condé’s governance, that the country would experience a general ban on demonstrations since July 2018 with demonstrators imprisoned for exercising constitutionally guaranteed rights?” International involvement is dominated by Russia, Turkey and China overtly positioning themselves with Condé while Western governments adapt a non-interventionist stance, urging with appeals for transparent and peaceful methods. Nonetheless, Americans and Europeans are keeping a cautious watch on the rising death toll in Guinea. Should the violence continue, tolerance of causalities will diminish and demand a response from Western governments.
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