Peace Talks Begin In Myanmar Following Rebel Victory

On January 4th, the Three Brotherhood Alliance surrounded and accepted the surrender of military government troops in the regional capital of Laukkai, Myanmar. The fall of Laukkai to pro-democracy forces has cut off a majority of the Chinese border with Myanmar, threatening Chinese trade and stability in the area. The seizure of Laukkai is part of a collective strategy to incentivize China to intervene in the conflict by threatening economic stability in the region. As of January 12th, this strategy appears to have been decisive due to the recent cease-fire and Chinese-led peace talks between the Three Brotherhood Alliance and the military government.

People’s Republic of China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning spoke of talks in the Chinese city of Kunming, expressing that “China hopes that parties concerned in Myanmar will earnestly implement the ceasefire agreement already reached and exercise maximum restraint.” An anonymous member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance responded to a request for comment by Reuters, on the terms of the cease-fire agreement “From the (alliance) side, the agreement is to refrain from offensive attacks on enemy camps or towns. From the military side, the agreement is not to engage in attacks through airstrikes, bombardment, or heavy weapons,” According to Reuters, the Myanmar military government refused to comment on the talks or the potential for a lasting settlement.

It appears the movement has reached a decisive point in its struggle against the military junta. By focusing on the Chinese border, the pro-democracy militants have leveraged economic pressure against the military government. China has little interest in the political conflict in Myanmar and is more concerned by the prospects of economic instability or conflict spillover into the Chinese side of the border. The intervention of Chinese diplomats after rebel victories on the border demonstrates the impact of strategic momentum for the pro-democracy forces. The People’s Republic of China(P.R.C) is the main international backer of the military junta, so their intervention as a peace mediator could prove decisive. With continued victories for the pro-democracy forces, the unpopular military regime could face collapse if the pressure continues to mount. The international community should take the opportunity to put economic and political pressure on the military government to release former President Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been in prison since the military coup on February 1st, 2021. In a time dominated by the rhetoric of “democracy versus autocracy”, the conflict in Myanmar has been criminally under-reported by mainstream media organizations. The pro-democracy militants are students, doctors, and young people who believe in fighting for the democratic rule of law. Few causes in the world represent the democratic ideal more than the Myanmar People’s Defense Force.

The civil war in Myanmar has been raging since, February 2021 when military leaders arrested the President and her cabinet. The fighting against the new government has been deep within the country’s interior in regions historically rich in guerrilla movements since the 1940s. Since the coup d’état, the military has used airpower to indiscriminately target homes and infrastructure in rebel-controlled border regions. Fighting between the military and pro-democracy forces has been brutal, with the primary tactic of the rebels being ambushes and ‘drive-by’ attacks in urban areas. Large parts of these areas have remained autonomous from the military government and several independent rebel groups have formed The People’s Defence Force and the associated National Unity Government.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance comprises three groups with extensive fighting experience – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Arakan Army. This alliance represents the future of Myanmar if the Junta is overthrown. Before being renamed Myanmar, the nation of Burma suffered under decades of military rule before transitioning to democracy in 2012-2015. The leading figure in Myanmar’s struggle for democracy has been Aung San Suu Kyi, in a role similar to South Africa’s Nelson Mandela. Kyi had been under various forms of house arrest since the 1990s, only to take power in 2015 before being overthrown in the 2021 coup d’état.

The conflict in Myanmar represents a chaotic struggle for democratic representation in a historically autocratic society, whose borders were drawn by British colonial rule rather than organic national identity. Even if the conflict were to end tomorrow, the structural conflicts inside Myanmar would remain as contentious as they were during wartime. The victory of the Three Brotherhood Alliance may win the war, but can these rebel groups win the peace? Only time may tell, but one thing is certain. The struggle for democracy in Myanmar has only just begun.

Related