On April 22, a terrorist attack killed 26 Indian tourists in Pahalgam, in the Indian-administered region of Kashmir. The Indian government immediately claimed Islamist militiamen operating from Pakistan to be responsible, specifically jihadist groups known as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Both organizations are considered terrorist groups by the international arena and are active in Kashmir with the alleged support of the ISI, Pakistan’s intelligence services. Pakistan, however, has denied any involvement in the attack.

In response, India launched “Operation Sindoor,” named after the red powder put on the foreheads of Hindu women after marriage to symbolize women widowed after the April massacre. On the night of May 6-7, twenty-four missiles were fired at nine targets on Pakistani soil, also hitting, according to local sources, four mosques and a clinic. Pakistan reported the deaths of more than 31 civilians and promised a “proportionate response,” invoking the right to self-defense under the UN Charter. In the hours that followed, Pakistani armed forces shot down five Indian aircraft and launched new attacks across the Line of Control, killing three civilians in Indian Kashmir. India reported at least 12 deaths in the Pakistani bombings.

The dispute between India and Pakistan over control of Kashmir dates back to 1947, following the withdrawal of Britain from the area, when two states were born: Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan. Both countries claimed the territory of Kashmir, and as early as 1947, there was an armed conflict that ended with an agreement providing for a provisional border, dividing Kashmir into three parts, two ruled by India and one by Pakistan. Despite the large number of civilians killed in the 1947 conflict, two other wars were subsequently fought by the two countries. The second Indo-Pakistani war began in 1965 because of the invasion of Pakistani armed troops into areas under Indian rule. The third, in 1971, began due to India’s support for Bengali independence fighters residing in East Pakistan. The 1972 agreement sanctioned the birth of Bangladesh and defined the “Kashmir Line of Control.” Despite these wars and other peace agreements that have since occurred, violent clashes have never entirely ceased.

The war actions of recent days also raise fears globally, considering that India and Pakistan both have nuclear weapons: about 150 warheads each. However, the two countries follow different military doctrines regarding nuclear power: India has adopted the principle of “no first use” (not using nuclear weapons except in response to an enemy nuclear attack), while Pakistan plans to use its atomic weapons primarily as a tool of deterrence. Although the risk of nuclear war is considered remote, instability increases the danger of disproportionate responses and degeneration of the conflict.

The geopolitical setting plays a key role in this conflict. India’s government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is backed by Hindu nationalist and fundamentalist groups, which in recent years have suppressed protests by the Muslim minority, committing extreme acts such as burning mosques and lynching Muslims in the streets. India, which until a decade ago was buying Russian weapons, now purchases American, French and Israeli weapons. On the other hand, Pakistan has a regime based on an Islamist and militaristic system. In addition, Pakistan, which has long been an American protectorate, falls more so under China’s sphere of influence with today’s geopolitical changes.

Thus, what renders the conflict particularly complicated is the fact that it is not only linked to religious factors and territorial claims, but also, more generally, to the assertion of geopolitical leadership in that particular geographic area. A particularly concerning aspect is that the two countries have initiated hostilities despite the efforts of a substantial portion of the international community, which has urged them to engage in dialogue and de-escalation. It is not difficult to predict that any potential escalation of the conflict will increase the international community’s pressure on the two countries to renounce violence and prevent a potentially devastating armed conflict between the two nuclear powers.