In recent days, fewer migrants have been attempting to cross the border between Poland and Belarus, according to a group of journalists that were permitted to enter the area this past Monday. The European Union has accused Belarus of engineering a migrant crisis on the Polish border to destabilize rival European countries. While tensions have receded somewhat, Polish border guards claim that they continue to face provocations from Belarusian officials. “Yesterday… we saw on the Belarusian side a car of the Belarusian security services from which Belarusian soldiers every dozen or so meters were throwing firecrackers,” said Polish Border Guard Captain Krystyna Jakimik-Jarosz.
Belarus is accused of intentionally luring migrants from countries like Iraq and Kurdistan on tourist visas with the false promise that they would then have easy access to the European Union. When they arrived in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, they were placed on buses and shipped to the Lithuanian and Polish borders. To stave off border crossings, Poland sent troops who used tear gas and water cannons on the migrants. At least 10 migrants, including a child, have died of exposure in the freezing forests between the two countries.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely attempting to force concessions from Brussels on the heavy sanctions it placed on the autocrat’s regime after his violent crackdown on protests this summer. Belarus has also been cozying up with Russia at the expense of western Europe, announcing this past week that they would be conducting joint military drills with the country as tensions mount with Ukraine.
The most straightforward solution is to call Belarus’s bluff. If European countries were to begin the asylum process for these migrants, it would portray the E.U. in a positive light to the rest of the world. However, this would incentivize Belarus to engage in similar actions in the future. It is highly unlikely that European countries will take this course for fear of political pushback. For the past decade, European countries have struggled to control populist movements that rally around anti-immigrant rhetoric. While many of these leaders are not currently in power, the sentiments that underlie their strength remain and would surge out at this highly publicized acceptance of migration. The crisis hints at one of the central questions of democracy: what should be done when the people do not support the right action?
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