On November 29^th, talks resumed in Vienna in an attempt to salvage the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal. Representatives from Russia, China, France, Germany, and the UK have been striving to negotiate the revival of the deal with Iran. Negotiations are being relayed to US representatives by the European attendees as Iran still refuses to meet directly with the US following its withdrawal from the 2015 agreement. This agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), limited Iranian nuclear endeavours in exchange for the removal of economic sanctions imposed by the UN, US, and EU. Under the terms of the agreement, Iran agreed to allow international inspections of its nuclear facilities and limit the production and stockpiling of key materials needed to produce nuclear weapons. In 2018, US President Donald Trump abandoned the deal, which he frequently dubbed “the worst deal ever,” and reintroduced economic sanctions upon Iran. It was not until May 2021 that indirect talks to salvage the agreement commenced under US President Joe Biden.

There have been multiple rounds of negotiations since May. The last round of negotiations concluded in June, but during the five-month hiatus, a new president was elected in Iran. President Ebrahim Raisi is recognized as more conservative than predecessor Hassan Rouhani, and this is reflected in the key texts proposed by Iran in the opening week of the negotiations. These texts take a more hardline stance than previously seen: one deals with the restriction of Iran’s nuclear activities and one deals with the removal of sanctions. According to Iran’s state news agency INRA, President Raisi stated that Iran’s proposal of these texts “shows that we are serious in the talks, and if the other side is also serious about the removal of sanctions, we will achieve a good agreement.” However, Al Jazeera reported that the US and European representatives viewed the contents of these texts as extreme and believe they demonstrate a lack of willingness to negotiate and compromise. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that “due to the offer of the Iranian government, negotiations have been thrown back six months.” Clearly, the pathway to restoring the JCPOA will not be without difficulties.

Another key consideration on the table is the progress made by Iran in its nuclear capabilities since the US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018. The exact extent of Iran’s progress is difficult to discern. One of the key requirements of the JCPOA was for Iran to allow international inspections, administered by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). But, in an interview with Al Jazeera, IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi stated that the organization is struggling to gain access to a key centrifuge production facility in Karaj, where cameras previously used for surveillance of Iran’s nuclear programme were damaged in June.

However, there is intelligence that significant progress has been made. One of the key steps in producing nuclear weapons is enriching uranium. Axios reported that Iran can enrich uranium to 60% purity, and further reported that Israeli intelligence suggests that Iran is striving to make further progress to be able to enrich uranium to 90% purity. This is the level of purity required to produce nuclear weapons. Enrichment of uranium alone is not sufficient to produce a nuclear bomb, but experts are now estimating that based on the current levels of progress, Iran may be able to produce a nuclear bomb within the next two years.

To avoid a potential nuclear proliferation crisis with Iran, negotiations must continue. The US placed itself in a problematic position by withdrawing from the JCPOA in 2018 – it is difficult to see how a better deal from the perspective of the US is possible given the lack of trust that underpins the negotiations. The economic sanctions imposed in 2018 do not appear to have deterred Iran from making significant progress in its nuclear programme, and this progress provides Iran with additional bargaining power. The negotiations are further complicated by the inability of the US to provide assurances over the future of any deal. But given the ineffectiveness of the only viable alternative – economic sanctions – the US, through representatives from Russia, China, France, Germany, and the UK, must continue to press for a deal that will limit Iran’s nuclear activities.