North Korean-Russian Ties Deepen Over Ukraine, U.S. Sanctions

On January 16th, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (D.P.R.K.) sent Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in anticipation of an official state visit by Vladimir Putin to the D.P.R.K. These high-level diplomatic meetings come as the two nations develop deeper ties in the face of Western economic sanctions. Bilateral relations between Russia and the D.P.R.K. have grown warmer as the D.P.R.K. exports military hardware to the hard-pressed Russian military. Both sides have officially denied the transfer of weapons or ammunition.

Kyrylo Budanov, leader of Ukraine’s military intelligence, spoke to the Financial Times about the impact of the D.P.R.K. weapon shipments: “They did transfer a significant amount of artillery ammunition…This allowed Russia to breathe a little. Without their help, the situation would have been catastrophic.”From an intelligence-gathering perspective, it is obvious that the primary axis of cooperation between Russia and the D.P.R.K. is military assistance. According to a report by the Associated Press, South Korea’s main spy agency provided a briefing to United States lawmakers indicating that more than a million artillery shells have been sent to Russia since August, via ships and transport planes. In addition to physical evidence in cities like Kyiv, the United States Department of State released a statement on January 9th confirming the transfer of ballistic missiles from the D.P.R.K. to Russia: “We condemn in the strongest possible terms the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (D.P.R.K.) export and Russia’s procurement of D.P.R.K. ballistic missiles, as well as Russia’s use of these missiles against Ukraine on December 30, 2023, and January 2, 2024.”

The D.P.R.K. has used its existing pariah status in the international community to support the Russian government without fear of sanctions. As the D.P.R.K. is one of the most sanctioned nations on earth, the Kim government no longer fears soft-power attempts at coercing behavior in D.P.R.K.’s foreign policy. The unique position of the D.P.R.K. as a permanently militarized society allows Russia to leverage intellectual property and specialized goods for needed artillery stockpiles maintained by the D.P.R.K. As a militarized totalitarian state, the D.P.R.K. likely relishes the opportunity to trade aging stocks of Warsaw Pact ammunition in exchange for computers, and technology transfers of submarine and aircraft designs. The impact of Russian technology exports is best demonstrated by the recent adoption of nuclear drones by the D.P.R.K. in addition to increased hypersonic missile testing and deployment of surveillance satellites in the last six months.

The shift in relations between Russia and the D.P.R.K. is directly tied to the Ukraine War. Fighting in Ukraine has a daily cost of about 6,000 artillery shells, and that number can increase with the tempo of offensive operations. As both sides in the conflict suffer devastating shortages of artillery ammunition, the world has seen Russia and the United States scrambling to source existing stockpiles, and long-frozen domestic defense production being revived. According to an investigation by The Intercept in September 2023, the United States allegedly supported political actors in Pakistan to detain former Prime Minister Imran Khan. This was reportedly done to help facilitate the transfer of Pakistani artillery stockpiles for the Ukrainian 2023 Summer Offensive.

Russia and North Korea have a shared interest in spreading the United States forces across their regions of interest. By investing in North Korean nuclear deterrence and submarine capabilities, Russia can reduce the resources available to the United States in the event of a direct conflict between Russia and N.A.T.O. The unfortunate by-product of total economic sanctions is the creation of “unlikely bedfellows.”Nations, who without economic sanctions might be hostile to each other, will create agreements to lessen the effects of being removed from the global market and economy. The desperation to source military hardware for the fighting in Ukraine has put Russia in a new alignment with nations like Iran and the D.P.R.K., a relationship that will continue to grow as the war in Ukraine grinds onwards.

The alignment between nations sanctioned by the United States and its allies in the international community will continue with time—regional coalitions such as the Iran-Russia-D.P.R.K. Axis or B.R.I.C.S. have lessened the impact of U.S-backed economic sanctions, as non-aligned developing nations make up an increasing share of global G.D.P. The rise of conflicts and regional instability has eroded, and will continue to erode, the power of globalization in favor of regional actors and economic self-interests.

 

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