Since the start of August 2024, thousands of Nigerians have participated in protests nationwide, rallying to combat poor governance, high living costs, and state corruption. In the northern region of the country, protesters are waving the Russian flag, with some demanding a military overthrow, signaling a growing belief among some Nigerians that Russia, rather than Western powers, can provide viable solutions to the country’s ongoing crises. One protestor, Lawal Kodo, told Reuters, “We are waving the Russian flag because Tinubu’s government is not listening to us. Russian presidents always support African nations’ development, unlike other nations.” State authorities have denounced these actions and have detained tailors for making Russian flags for anti-government protests on charges of treason. Although the Russian Embassy in Nigeria has denied any affiliation to the movement, these acts have continued to provoke concerns, mainly due to the rise in Russian activity in Western Africa. The Russian-sponsored Wagner mercenary group has enabled multiple military coups in states such as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. The production and appearance of Russian flags during the protests in Nigeria underscore important implications of Russia’s potential influence in the country’s internal affairs and the negative impact it could have on Nigeria’s democratic consolidation.

The political unrest in various African states has provided a pathway for Russia to expand its influence by offering security assistance and defense equipment to countries in the region. Following the recent Russian-backed coups, anti-Western military juntas came to power. They expelled French and other Western forces that worked to combat armed groups aligned with al-Qaeda and ISIS and subsequently turned to Russia for military support. Russia’s involvement in the region aims to attain its objective of a multipolar world by weakening Western powers and gaining control over strategic resources.

Russia’s growing footprint in Africa and backing of authoritarian regimes can pose severe consequences to Nigeria’s political institutions. They can potentially exacerbate the current instability by intensifying the decline of their democracy. For example, actors such as Wagner have contributed to worsening conditions for civilians in the Sahel region by repressing democratic opposition through their military and political support of local autocrats and insurgent groups, as evidenced in Mali, where human rights abuses and crime have increased. Democratic backsliding has dangerous implications for the region and the global community, as democratic governance is crucial for achieving peace, development, and human rights standards. Additionally, turning countries such as Nigeria and others into a battleground for global competition between considerable powers such as Russia and Western states can lead to strategic interests prioritized over the well-being of local populations.

Many Nigerians, primarily the youth, have turned to Russia for assistance due to their mistrust of Western policies, such as ineffective counterterror interventions that have failed to resolve longstanding issues. This mistrust derives from the Western world’s long history of colonialism, where the exploitation of resources and labor significantly weakened the development of African states. As a result, efforts must be made to address the people’s concerns and counter external powers’ appeal. In doing so, the government must implement anti-corruption laws that will hold officials accountable and work to restore public confidence and trust in governing bodies rather than enacting reforms that solely benefit international investors, big businesses, and the political elite. Further, the escalated cases of crime by insurgent groups such as Boko Haram should be addressed by employing counterterrorism strategies that will address the root causes of violence and instability, such as poverty and unemployment, as opposed to the use of military troops from Western countries. Finally, international support through development aid can be harnessed to fund the implementation of economic reforms, infrastructure, and social services to improve living standards. These changes will ensure security, order, and general welfare, thereby promoting the perceived legitimacy of the state.

To begin counteracting the possible negative effects of Russia’s influence in Nigeria and other neighboring countries, political transparency, accountability, and tangible improvements to governance and quality of life must be reinforced. Such approaches have the potential to enable sustainable strides toward positive sociopolitical change.