Myanmar’s military leaders pardoned over 10,000 political prisoners early last week on Peasants’ Day, a Burmese national holiday. This mass pardon comes just weeks before Myanmar’s first parliament to be held since the military coup in 2021. Many of those released had been convicted under counterterrorism laws frequently used by the military junta to prosecute political opponents.

Analysts have expressed skepticism about the broader significance of the mass pardon. In an email interview for this article, Myanmar specialist Dr. Ashley South suggested that the move may be intended more to shape perceptions than signal genuine political change. “The main target is the international community, and also people in Myanmar,” he explained, adding that the junta hopes to “look like it’s operating from a position of strength by releasing some prisoners before their sentences are complete.” However, many political prisoners remain in detention, including high-profile opposition leaders such as former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, and former President Win Myint.

At first glance, the mass pardon may appear to be positive news; thousands of people imprisoned for opposing the military dictatorship are being released. When taking a step back and considering the whole history, it is important to remember why this pardon is happening. With parliament set to convene on March 16th, the timing raises questions about what the junta hopes to achieve by releasing so many prisoners at this moment.

An election was held in January although it was not free, nor was it fair. According to a New York Times article on the election, all democratic parties were banned, opposition leaders were still imprisoned, and half the country was not given the chance to vote. The military’s proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), won the election, winning 233 out of 264 seats up for election in the lower house of parliament, and 108 of 224 seats in the upper house. The next president will be selected when parliament convenes. Coup leader, General Min Aung Hlaing, is widely expected to fill the position. If Hlaing does become the official president, he will have to relinquish his General position and give up full control of the junta. 

This mass pardon, the election, and parliament convening to select a new president are all ways for the junta to attempt to legitimize their current regime. Rather than allowing the people to democratically elect a leader of their choice, the junta is ensuring that power will remain in their hands. Through rigged elections, deliberately timed pardons, and continued suppression of the people, the junta will most likely succeed in their efforts to maintain power. The international community has placed sanctions on key military leaders and military-linked companies in response to the coup and continued repression. Moves such as elections and mass pardons may therefore be intended to create the appearance of political progress, potentially encouraging some governments to re-engage with the regime despite ongoing democratic backsliding. Real political progress will likely require free democratic participation, the release of the remaining political prisoners, and a genuine commitment to restoring civilian rule.

In 2021, the military overthrew the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Since then, Suu Kyi has faced multiple charges brought by the military, including corruption allegations. Suu Kyi has been held in an unknown location since the coup, with no access to her family or her lawyers. There is no information on whether she will be one of the pardoned. After the coup, thousands were arrested for fighting back and for speaking out against the military. In recent years violence has continued, with reports of thousands of people killed, arrested, tortured, and disappeared. The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners estimates that thousands of political detainees remain imprisoned across the country. Against this backdrop of widespread arrests and continued repression, the recent mass pardon represents only a small development in a broader system that continues to imprison thousands of political opponents.

For the families of those released, the amnesty represents a moment of relief. However, with tens of thousands of political detainees still imprisoned and key opposition leaders excluded from the pardon, the move is unlikely to ease Myanmar’s broader political crisis. Dr. South noted that when Myanmar’s military leadership presents a new government in the coming weeks, some members of the international community may use the development as justification to re-engage with the regime, even as many people within Myanmar continue to view the military leadership as illegitimate. For now, relief for some families is subdued by the reality that meaningful change in Myanmar remains uncertain, and the struggle for justice continues.