With ballots cast and political groups divided, the first phase of Myanmar’s general election on Dec. 28, 2025, saw a weaker turnout than in previous elections. This was the country’s first election since the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military, ousted its elected government in 2021. Many analysts expect the Tatmadaw’s proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), to win and return to power. This comes amid global condemnation of the election by Western governments and the United Nations. Critics warn that the tightly controlled vote gives military rule more unsubstantiated legitimacy.
The Tatmadaw reported a 52% voter turnout in the first phase of the elections. Zaw Min Tun, a junta spokesperson, called this turnout a source of pride, noting that even in developed democracies, turnout can be below 50%. However, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems says that this was well below the 70% turnout in the 2020 and 2015 elections. Similarly, the Nation Thailand reported lower turnout in Myanmar’s cities than in 2020, with polling stations eerily quiet. With the opposition barred from contesting, many residents went about their normal schedules rather than participating in an election they knew they had no real choice in.
While the recent election solidifies Tatmadaw and USDP authority, civil war persists between the Tatmadaw and opposition forces. In 2024, the Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance reported 52,000 fatalities in the conflict since 2021, including over 9,000 civilians. Myanmar’s minority groups have particularly suffered targeted persecution and genocide. The Humanitarian Aid and Relief Trust notes that Myanmar is highly ethnically diverse, with over 135 minority ethnic groups making up 40% of the population. CNN reports that minorities have been denied the right to vote or run in Myanmar’s elections, while also facing massacres, rape, and other forms of violence. These ongoing atrocities demonstrate that, regardless of attempts to restore its political image through this election, the Tatmadaw has not sought to create a peaceful state that respects every civilian’s rights.
Since its independence in 1948, Myanmar has been ruled by two military juntas. Historically, there were no opposition groups in Myanmar’s political system, as it was a one-party state under the junta until 1988. However, real change came when the second junta dissolved in 2011, handing power to a civilian government. Despite this seemingly democratic transition, the constitution still reserved a quarter of parliamentary seats for the military. Many former military officers returned to power due to electoral laws that restricted non-junta-backed parties. Several opposition figures, including popular activist Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy Party (NLD), boycotted the 2010 elections. After 2011, political reforms allowed new parties to register, freed many political prisoners, and eased censorship. The NLD re-registered and dominated the 2015 and 2020 elections with relatively high turnout, winning a supermajority in the legislature and the presidency. After their 2020 victory, the military claimed election fraud and overthrew the NLD in a coup. They arrested elected leaders, including Suu Kyi, and took over major branches of government. The army has since fought groups supporting Myanmar’s former democracy. They hope this recent election will quell opposition claims of authoritarianism by suggesting that civilians can exercise political freedoms– even though the process has been skewed to ensure the USDP’s victory.
Many view it as ironic that the party that unjustly overthrew a democratically elected government is now urging civilians to legitimize its authority through participation in a tightly controlled and opaque election. This lack of transparency prevents genuine political representation, leading to lower civic participation as civilians distrust both the candidates and the process. The military’s censorship and continued retaliation against dissent have perpetuated the cycle of conflict that hinders Myanmar’s path to lasting democracy and peace.
