On February 16th, a security conference occurred in Munich, Germany, leaving many European officials increasingly concerned about President Trump’s motives surrounding the ongoing Ukraine and Russia conflict. 

The Russian-Ukraine conflict began in 2014 when Russia forcefully annexed Crimea, which further sparked tensions between Ukraine separatists and Russian loyalists. The conflict worsened in 2022 when Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, creating one of the most significant conflicts in Europe in recent years. By invading Ukraine, Russia plans to expand its control throughout Europe and further weaken Ukraine, making it susceptible to Russian control. Since Russia’s invasion, the European Union as well as NATO have established various sanctions to weaken Russia’s advances as well as provide funding and aid for Ukraine. Historically, the European Union and NATO have relied on the United States for leadership and military strength; however, following the 2024 election, there has been a significant shift in international politics and the United States’ role in global affairs. Following these changes, many European countries have increased their defense budgets to support Ukraine and ensure their own regional and political stability. 

After the conference in Munich, various European officials noted that they “would have to take more responsibility for their defense and military spending,” according to Reuters. Doing this would enable them to support Ukraine against Russian advances. These fears were further confirmed by U.S. General Keith Kellogg, who confirmed that the European Union (E.U.) would not be present for Ukraine-Russia peace talks, but their views would be considered. President Trump also noted that he had called Russian President Vladimir Putin, claiming peace talks would start immediately. In response, European foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated, “As I stand here in Munich tonight, I cannot help but ask: Have we been here before?” Her comment further confirms the uneasy feeling many officials are developing as the Trump administration continues to exclude the E.U. from peace talks and upend years of foreign policy. Furthermore, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that a peace deal would not include NATO membership for Ukraine, stating that “returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.” Following the significant developments in the Russia and Ukraine conflict, two unnamed European leaders called for the European Union to designate a special envoy for Ukraine peace talks, according to Reuters. Many officials have also expressed fear over the concept that the Trump administration opposes the international political norm. One European diplomat said, “It is clear now that the U.S. wants to break the post-World War Two order that they created. That includes destroying the E.U. We must be prepared for that and change our attitude completely.” 

The European Union’s response to President Trump’s agenda surrounding the Russia and Ukraine conflict highlights growing tension in the long-standing political alliance. President Trump’s stance on the conflict has further encouraged the European Union to act independently to ensure that Ukraine continues to be supported in the conflict. Historically, the European Union has had a significantly smaller budget allocated to defense spending, allowing the United States to fill the gaps in this sector; however, the uncertainty surrounding the United States’ stance on the Ukraine-Russia conflict has left the European Union striving to achieve a greater sense of self-reliance in order to support Ukraine and maintain its regional stability. These tensions and uncertainties have the potential to be problematic factors that embolden Russia in this conflict, undermine European stability, and weaken Ukraine’s stance in the ongoing conflict. To maintain stability, the European Union must aim to strengthen its defenses without the support of the United States. While United States leadership within NATO is a critical component of international relations, the European Union must work towards independence without the previous support of the United States. Doing so will ensure that support for Ukraine remains strong and that regional security can flourish.

The security conference in Munich symbolizes a significant shift in international relations. As the need for unity, aid, and strength increases, so does the uncertainty surrounding the United States’ involvement in the Ukraine conflict. This uncertainty has pushed European leaders to make independent decisions regarding defense spending, ensuring support for Ukraine and protecting regional sovereignty.