Mexico’s government, led by newly-elected Claudia Sheinbaum, has pledged to continue its current approach to controlling migration toward the U.S. border, even as Donald Trump’s recent election victory signals potential challenges ahead. Foreign Minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente highlighted that these policies, which focus on containment and employment opportunities, have led to a 76% drop in border apprehensions since December. President Sheinbaum also confirmed discussing border issues with  Donald Trump during their first post-election call, which she described as “cordial”.

Despite government reassurances, those opposed worry that Mexico’s already stringent policies could intensify under renewed U.S. pressure. José María García, who runs a migrant shelter in Tijuana, warned that enforcement measures are likely to increase. Some migrants criticized the policies as hypocritical, given Mexico’s humanitarian commitments. Sheinbaum defended the approach, emphasizing efforts to tackle the root causes of migration, such as poverty and unemployment, alongside containment strategies.

Mexico’s dual approach has sparked debate. While the significant decline in migrant crossings suggests short-term effectiveness, the long-term impacts remain uncertain. Trump’s return to office could renew U.S. demands for stricter enforcement. Advocacy groups fear these pressures may result in harsher treatment of migrants and human rights violations.

Over the years, Mexico’s role in migration management has shifted dramatically. Once a transit country, it has increasingly taken on enforcement responsibilities to meet U.S. expectations. Current measures, such as relocating migrants to southern regions and tightening border security, contrast with Mexico’s stated goals of humanitarian support. During Trump’s first presidency, restrictive U.S. policies left thousands of migrants stranded in border camps, reshaping migration dynamics and influencing Mexico’s current strategies.

As Trump prepares to take office for the second time, Mexico faces the challenge of balancing U.S. demands with its own humanitarian goals and international responsibilities. Striking this balance will be critical to addressing migration in a way that protects human rights while maintaining regional stability. The coming years will test Mexico’s ability to navigate these competing priorities and uphold its commitments.