At a press conference on 14 July 2025, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that the U.S. and Mexico were close to reaching an agreement on security before U.S. tariffs are set to take effect on 1 August 2025.

On 12 July 2025, President Trump posted on Truth Social that Mexico was not doing enough to combat the flow of fentanyl and cartels that have turned the United States into a “Narco Trafficking Playground.” Trump added the U.S. would be charging Mexico a 30% tariff on all Mexican goods on 1 August 2025. Sheinbaum responded to President Trump’s criticism that her administration was not doing enough to combat fentanyl – insisting the U.S. needed to “do its part” in controlling the flow of weapons from the U.S. into Mexico. Sheinbaum has also rejected Trump’s offer to deploy U.S. troops into Mexico to fight the cartels, expressing more interest in sharing intelligence over an action that would violate Mexico’s sovereignty.

Military intervention would indeed threaten Mexico’s sovereignty and be a form of violent, foreign intervention that would not address the issue. The United States and Mexico should instead continue its joint training program of law enforcement and justice system professionals under the Merida Initiative and establish a joint task force on fentanyl disruption. Mexico for its part should focus efforts on fentanyl distribution at its border and sea ports. It should also introduce more rigorous vetting and database procedures for its law enforcement to prevent corruption and intelligence leaks. The United States for its part should expand training of police units to use eTrace within the A.T.F. and revitalize the GC-Armas contact group, where U.S. and Mexican officials exchanged intelligence on smuggling trends and crime investigations.

Drug trafficking and violence perpetrated by cartels has been a longstanding issue of concern for both the U.S. and Mexico. From 2006 – 2018, 125,000 to 150,000 lives were lost to organized crime in Mexico. From 2015 – 2024, the number of opioid and fentanyl related deaths in the United States increased from 30,000 to 79,000. Most of the fentanyl that circulates into the U.S. comes in through the southern border, with 21,148 pounds seized by U.S. officials in 2024. A recent leak of Mexican intelligence showed that over the past two decades, 78,000 firearms were smuggled into Mexico from the United States. The circulation of U.S. firearms into Mexico feeds the violence of the cartels which in turn perpetuates both the flow of fentanyl and migration. Although U.S. law does regulate the sale and distribution of firearms, private sales and gun shows are not subject to background checks.

In terms of recent events, Sheinbaum has been taking a more measured approach in tackling security. Compared to her predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Sheinbaum has applied a more stringent strategy. Unlike Obrador, who focused more on social and welfare programs to reduce cartel recruitment, Sheinbaum’s focus is on strengthening the intelligence networks of the Mexican state, targeting the most violent organizers of criminal groups and addressing security issues at the local level. Recently, her administration extradited 29 alleged members from the Sinaloa and Noreste cartels to the U.S. and destroyed several fentanyl labs.

The implications of whether a security deal can be reached and what will result if a deal is reached are uncertain, but it is within the interests of both countries to collaborate on a security deal. The current 25% tariffs imposed on Mexican goods that do not comply with the U.S. Mexico Free Trade Agreement mainly consist of steel, aluminum, and automotive products. An increase in tariffs would further increase costs on these imports to U.S. consumers. Increased tariffs could also further send the economy of the U.S.’s largest trading partner into a further recession. Lack of collaboration could further compound the security issues for both countries.