Last week, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune to secure alternative gas supplies following the disruption in supply from Qatar due to Iranian strikes in the Gulf. Iranian attacks on critical gas infrastructure have caused a global scramble to seek alternative contracts amid rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices. With LNG supplies from Qatar amounting to 10% of Italy’s annual gas consumption, Italy moved to resolve a looming energy shortage through an expanded partnership with Algeria.
In the agreement made on March 25th, Italy and Algeria agreed on increased energy cooperation between their top energy companies: Italy’s Eni and Algeria’s Sonatrach. This included expanding cooperation fronts such as shale gas production and offshore exploration. According to Reuters, Algeria currently makes up about 30% of Italy’s annual gas consumption; thus, this effort will strengthen the flow of gas supplies to Italy, increasing reliance on Algiers for energy.
With the International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol defining the supply disruptions in the Gulf as equivalent to the two major oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 gas crisis combined, it comes as a relief to Italy that President Tebboune expressed his willingness to honor their commitments in Rome through a joint press conference on Wednesday following a statement from Italian Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin detailing the commitment he seeks to account for Italian demand.
Meloni’s trip to Algeria secures a remedy to the implementation of force majeure in Qatar after Iran destroyed 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity, according to QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi. But this hustle to secure alternative energy means represents the fragility of over-dependence on a region for gas products presenting an institutionally made threat to peace and security. Over reliance on a region enables a vulnerability where events such as the existing supply disruption and a sudden increase in price can create instability within a state, fast-tracking economic hardship and deteriorating state resilience.
This transition comes following the US-Israeli airstrikes in Tehran that targeted over 1,000 locations in 24 hours. In retaliatory acts based on the idea that the Gulf states are allowing US personnel to use their bases for attacks against the country, Iran has moved to target critical energy infrastructure. Iran then moved to close the Strait of Hormuz on March 27th to prevent vessels from passing through causing a spike in oil prices. This closure violates the UN Convention on the Law of Sea due to the prevention of international navigation. Not only is the crisis spiking prices, it is disproportionately affecting civilians who reside near gas and oil facilities presenting how warfare is transitioning to attack civilian infrastructure, blurring the line between civilian and military domains.
Meloni’s visit to Algeria presents a short-term relief plan to secure additional energy but does little to account for the long-term effects of the crisis that is unfolding in the Middle East. With supply chain disruptions occurring, a bilateral deal cannot replace a solution to the conflict as implications are only expected to worsen. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk warned of the disastrous and potentially generational harms the attacks bring in a statement released March 19th. In a challenge to international peace and security, it is evident through Iranian acts that acts of war are never confined to a battlefield. Robust solutions must constitute a ceasefire, the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and an international commitment to resolving the conflict.
