Mali’s capital, Bamako, has struggled under a fuel blockade from the al-Qaeda-affiliated group, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (J.N.I.M.). The two-month blockade targets fuel tankers, especially those from Senegal and the Ivory Coast, where most of Mali’s imports come from. As a result, schools inside Bamako have shut down while businesses have found trouble operating without diesel-generated electricity. Fuel deprivation has fostered instability in Bamako, and several security analysts and diplomats told Reuters that J.N.I.M.’s ultimate goal is likely to trigger a coup in Mali, which would be its third since 2020. However, analysts also say the Islamist group does not have the strength or intention to capture Bamako.

As conditions in Bamako have deteriorated, other nations have taken precautions to isolate themselves and their citizens from the blockade’s harmful effects. Last month, the United States announced that non-essential diplomatic staff and their families would leave Mali, and France’s foreign ministry has encouraged its citizens to leave the country on commercial flights while they are still available. In October, the Interministerial Committee for Crisis and Disaster Management announced on fuel supplies, with priority given to “emergency, assistance, and public transport vehicles.” However, restrictions on fuel have created long lines in Bamako and fostered unrest as businesses and civilians alike lack access to energy. One official reported that energy supplies had also been cut to six hours a day, down from the usual 19.

J.N.I.M.’s blockade is another step in its campaign to gain political legitimacy with Mali’s current government or a potential post-coup administration. Reports claim the jihadists have demanded that Mali lift restrictions on rural fuel sales that cut J.N.I.M.’s supplies, putting pressure on Mali’s military government and hoping to instill discontent in the country’s population. J.N.I.M. has also conducted attacks in several other countries, including Burkina Faso and the Ivory Coast, but its strength is relatively small, with the Washington Post estimating 6,000 fighters. As a result, J.N.I.M. may be vulnerable to a coordinated effort between the multiple nations it has antagonized. If Mali were to cooperate with other nations to put diplomatic and military pressure on the militant group, it may fold due to its lack of absolute strength.

J.N.I.M. was formed during a merger between several resistance groups against French and Malian forces, and it has opposed Mali’s junta government since it consolidated power in 2021 under General Assimi Goïta. The military had popular support during its initial takeover as it promised to quell insurgencies in the north. However, Mali later ended cooperation with French forces and its former U.N. peacekeeping force. Since then, it has struggled to contain the insurgent movement, and partnerships with Russian mercenary groups have also failed to create military success.

Bamako’s blockade may not have resulted in widespread catastrophe yet, but conditions in the city have significantly worsened since its start. Mali’s people need a solution to solve their current temporal energy problem before it reaches critical levels, and they may need to work with other nations to do so.