Mali: A Risk Of Escalating Violence?

On March 5th, eleven soldiers were killed and five others were wounded on a Malian military base near the border with Burkina Faso. Though no group immediately claimed responsibility, it was likely the work of one of the Al-Qaeda affiliates active in the north of the country. The attack corresponds with signs of increased activity by jihadist groups in the region.

Mauritania’s Nouakchott News Agency recently reported that Mali’s extremist militias are planning to merge, announcing that “the biggest jihadi groups in Mali … will unite in one organization called Nusrat-ul-Islam.” Now that these groups are working together, instead of fighting amongst themselves, the situation in Mali is in danger of deteriorating.

Mali has been in a state of war since the beginning of 2012. In that year, The National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) began an armed campaign to gain independence for the Tuareg peoples of Northern Mali (Azawad). A military coup took place shortly afterward, jeopardizing the government’s ability to respond and creating a power vacuum. The MNLA took advantage of this, and working with Islamist groups such as Ansar Dine, drove the Malian military from Azawad. However, divisions emerged between the two Islamist groups over the proposed future of Northern Mali, and the MNLA were forced from their cities by their erstwhile allies. The MNLA and the Malian army were now fighting a common enemy, and from 2013, had the help of French and other African forces. Yet despite a ceasefire in 2015, the presence of over 15,000 UN peacekeepers and most of Azawad having been retaken from the Islamists, groups left unsatisfied by the terms of the agreement continue to fight. As the attacks of this past week have clearly demonstrated, there is the risk that violence could ignite at any moment.

For the sake of the Malian people, the war needs to be brought to a swift and peaceful conclusion. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that that 134,800 refugees have already been created through this conflict, and that number will continue to rise until stability is restored in Azawad. An incident last week, in which members of the Malian interim government were denied entry into Timbuktu by armed Tuareg groups, does nothing to help the situation. Small acts of rebellion perpetuate the power vacuum that exists in the North, which enables the Islamist militias to go unchecked. The new Malian executive should listen to the demands of the rebel forces, and allow a greater devolution of power in Azawad, whilst the latter should acknowledge the former as a legitimate government.

If not, the Islamist militias will continue to go unopposed, which is not an issue for Mali only. As the attacks on the soldiers on the border with Burkina Faso suggest, violence can easily spill into other countries. Almost exactly a year ago, gunmen opened fire in a resort in the Ivory Coast, killing sixteen. Niger has now declared a state of emergency in its regions which border Mali. Bringing this war to an end matters not just for Mali, but for its neighbours, too.

With reference to the incident in Timbuktu, Jean-Herve Jezequel of the International Crisis Group’s West Africa project asked whether they were “building any kind of sustainable peace through this kind of process that gives most resources to the guys with the guns.” Mr. Jezequel was probably referring to the armed Tuareg groups who remain intransigent. “The guys with the guns” could equally refer to the Islamist militias active in the region. Unless the rebels accept the return of government in the north, both groups will remain under threat from a common enemy.

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