Two weeks ago, the small European country of Moldova, located between Ukraine and Romania, saw its second round of elections come to a close, with pro-E.U. candidate Maia Sandu winning 57.7% of the vote. Sandu’s win came as a shock to many Moldovans. Their socialist-concentrated parliament has been led by Sandu’s opponent, Igor Dodon, since 2016, and Dodon received continual support from Russian president Vladimir Putin throughout the election. Sandu’s win inspired much rejoicing.
The unexpected upset indicates that Moldova’s interests may turn away from maintaining its strong ties with Moscow and towards building a relationship with the European Union, which Sandu intends to join during her presidency. Sandu has also expressed plans to separate Moldova from its corruption and conflict, which may include removing Russian troops from the separatist-concentrated region of Transnistria. Many believe, however, that these initiatives may trigger political strife. Unfreezing Transnistria’s frozen conflict may reintroduce discord to the region.
Prior to the election, Sandu made her progressive stances clear through interviews and social media posts. The president-elect intends to diminish the number of Moldovans working overseas, turn towards the E.U. to help fund the lower-middle-income economy, and fight present tensions between Moldovans and the Russian-speaking population. Over Instagram, Sandu posted, “Moldova can be a good country, a state without corruption. A state where thieves are punished. And decent people have good jobs, wages and pensions. We are a big family scattered all over the world. It’s time to live better wherever we are.”
After Sandu’s lead in the first round of elections almost resulted in her close-cut victory, Dodon expressed his distaste at a rally in Chisinau a couple of days before the second election. “They’ve gotten naked,” he said of the other candidates. “Until they get back, they don’t understand. So, you have to be tough, you have to fight back.” Dodon’s order to take to the streets to “defend our victory” was shortly followed by a post on Facebook, where Dodon asked his followers to disregard his original statement. “I urge everyone to [be] calm, regardless of the election results,” the post read.
In response to Sandu’s win, independent analyst Corneliu Ciurea told Reuters, “A victory in the second round by Maia Sandu would mean a period of tough political confrontation Moldova,” hinting mainly at Transnistria’s frozen conflict.
Moldova has seen many reforms and revolts between the majority and its Russian-speaking minority. Sandu’s plan to utilize and strengthen the Association Agreement of 2014 between the E.U. and Moldova may help to show improvements in the economy, which it desperately needs, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. The ties created by the 2014 agreement have wavered over the years, especially after Brussels drew back from providing aid and support to Moldova, citing the persistent riots the country has seen over the past decade.
However, with adequate funding, European support, and possibly joining the E.U., Moldova may be able to bring an influx of its overseas workers back home. More than 40% of Moldova’s citizens currently seek work abroad. Bringing back the missing half of the population may help to build and secure economic and political stability.
A large concentration of Russian-speaking Moldovans can be traced back to the country’s former status as a Soviet state. Moldova gained independence after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The disassembling of the Soviet Union triggered a cascade of conflict between the pro-Russia separatists in Transnistria and the rest of Moldova’s population. Although no hostilities are ongoing, the Russian peacekeeping troops originally sent during the Transnistria War are still there. The troops’ presence, along with ongoing support from the Kremlin and Dodon’s previous presence in office, has encouraged the separatists still inhabiting the area to declare the region to be the republic of Transnistria.
With Sandu taking over Dodon’s seat, the solutions to Transnistria’s frozen conflict she puts into play, and the fallout from these moves, it is unclear how the nearly half a million people living in Moldova will be affected. However, thanks to her plans to end the Russian peacekeeping mission, begin coalition with the E.U., and evolve Moldova’s economy, Moldovans can be assured that Sandu’s presence in office will bring changes in the near future.
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