ISIS Rapidly Losing Ground In Iraq And Syria

On Friday, Syrian government forces drove the last remaining pockets of ISIS militants from the eastern provincial capital of Deir al-Zour. Backed from the air by Russian bombardments and on the ground by Iranian-backed militias, Syrian forces are now advancing towards the strategic border town of Al Bukamal, BBC News reports.

Across the border, the Iraqi army and its Shia militia allies advanced as well, retaking a key border crossing from ISIS and entering the town of Qaim in Anbar Province, according to the military chief of staff. Some Iraqi-Shia militia are now saying they plan to pursue ISIS fighters into Syria.

These advances punctuate a striking reversal for the militant group. At its peak in January 2015, the territory of the self-declared caliphate stretched from Aleppo Province in Syria to the outskirts of Baghdad. Now, it retains just a few isolated pockets in Iraq’s Anbar Province and about a third of Syria’s desert Deir al-Zour Province.

In recent weeks, the decline has accelerated rapidly. Raqqa, over 100km northwest of Deir al-Zour and the Islamic State’s de facto capital, fell to the US-backed SDF in mid-October.

The so-called Islamic State’s impending military defeat brings new questions to the fore. Factions, militias, and governments that worked together—or at least tolerated each other in the common fight against ISIS—are now on a collision course.

Iraqi pro-government forces seized Kirkuk from the Iraqi Kurds in October after a disputed independence referendum went forward. The Kurds had themselves occupied the city after the Iraqi Army abandoned it in the face of an ISIS offensive. Involved in the operation were the Iranian-backed Shia militias that Baghdad has relied upon so heavily to push ISIS back.

The Sunni resentment that allowed ISIS’s sudden advance through the country has not disappeared. An occupation by Shia militias would only stoke tensions, and leaves Iraq vulnerable to a repetition of recent history.

The situation in Syria is even more complex and there are fears that the proxy war could intensify. The US-backed, majority-Kurd, SDF is attempting to seize as much strategic territory as possible. It sees this as leverage to resist possible government attempts to retake the Kurdish autonomous zone carved out of the north of the country.

Meanwhile, Iran and Russia would like to see the government reclaim the entirety of its lost territory. Should Syrian government forces move to retake rebel held areas or the Kurdish zone with Russian and Iranian support, the destruction and cost in human lives would be immense.

With ISIS militants scattered in the desert, and clinging to just a few remaining strongholds, the prospect for peace in Syria and Iraq is closer than it has been for years—but only if both the foreign powers and the factions they support find a way to negotiate.

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